Political stalemate

THE DIE is cast. The irresistible forces have met the immovable object and the result is either a stalemate or a zugswang.

In Metro Manila today, daily rallies and demonstrations, newspaper editorials and columns, resolutions and remonstrations call on President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to "Resign Now!" It appears that President Arroyo's public apology to the nation for her "lapse in judgment" in speaking with an election commissioner did not mollify the groups out to oust her by any means necessary.

The "irresistible forces" are a motley coalition. At the demonstration in Makati a few days ago, leftist groups like Bayan Muna, Gabriela, Pamalakaya, Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas, Sanlakas, Akbayan, and the Partido ng Manggagawa were joined by FPJ and Erap supporters like Makati Mayor Jojo Binay and San Juan Mayor JV Ejercito and their legion of supporters. Also in attendance were religious groups associated with the Jesus is Lord Movement of presidential contender Brother Eddie Villanueva.

These groups are unwilling to accept any legal or political alternative outside of President Gloria's outright resignation. In fact, they want both the President and the Vice President (Noli de Castro) to resign and for "snap elections" to be held. Well, change that, there really is no consensus on what should happen if they get their wish.

On the Right, Erap supporters want a military-civilian junta headed by former president Erap Estrada to lead the nation. The supporters of Senator Ping Lacson want him to head the junta. Still others look to FPJ's widow, movie actress Susan Roces, to reprise the move of Ninoy's widow, Cory Aquino, and take over the helms of the nation. Susan Roces can rely on the expertise of Marcos supporters like Juan Ponce-Enrile and Francisco "Kit" Tatad to guide her.

The rightist forces do not see impeachment as a viable alternative. For one, it takes too long and they are an impatient bunch. For another, they believe that since President Arroyo's party controls the parliamentary majority as well as the Supreme Court, they believe they will not succeed. It's resign or face the consequences.

The Left has more strategic, long-term goals. They want a total change from what they see as a bankrupt, free-market capitalist system dependent on US imperialism to a more central planning socialist model independent of US hegemony. They know that it will take a revolution to accomplish this fundamental change where power is transferred from the ruling class of "big compradors and landlords" to the oppressed classes of workers and peasants.

Prof. Jose Ma. Sison, the chair of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), recently announced that his Party and its military arm, the New People's Army (NPA), are "encouraging the broad united front of legal opposition parties and mass organizations to mobilize the people for legal mass actions in urban population centers. The current core of such legal forces has the high potential of becoming the gigantic force for ousting the Arroyo regime. To break the grip of the Arroyo regime on all the branches of the reactionary government and to oust this regime completely from power, it is necessary to mobilize the people in the millions. Thus, the opposition parties and the patriotic and progressive mass organizations are now rapidly raising the level of their common understanding, cooperation and coordination in a broad united front."

The "immovable object" of this broad united front is, of course, President Arroyo. While she expressed her apologies for having spoken with an election commissioner ("Hello, Garci"), she denies doing anything wrong and shows no indication that she intends to resign to accommodate her detractors. In her mind, she is innocent and she won the elections fair and square. Besides, if she resigns, the demonstrations would not stop as the groups will continue their protests until they force her constitutional successor, Noli De Castro, to resign as well. To these groups, Noli's crime is not cheating but being incompetent.

President Arroyo is also aware that if she resigns, she and her family would be fair game for her opponents, who include supporters of deposed president Erap, thirsting to exact revenge for his incarceration. So why would she want to quench their thirst?

The overseas Filipinos' dialogue on what to do to help the Philippines has been poisoned on the Internet. Last week, a "Roger Alizadeh" (election_volunteer_1@yahoo.com) sent out an e-mail message to dozens of Yahoo! Groups with the headline "kill her --- kill GMA." In his e-mail, he wrote that "killing criminals is what we (humans) do. Anywhere around the world, we kill criminals." As for President Arroyo, Alizadeh asserts, "she admitted it was a mistake after she could not deny it any longer. Well, that mistake was a conscious crime. She must die. Hang her high for the world to see, this is what we demand in govt., no less than perfect. Just as Badong said, as justice demands, kill her."

Few, if any on the Internet, wrote to chastise Alizadeh for his incendiary comments.

So the Philippines is back to where it was in 2000-2001, with continuing economic and political instability leading inexorably to what critics hope will be a regime change. Just as a similar situation did in 1986, with the first People Power.

But the opposition groups may be in for a disappointment if they expect President Arroyo to run and abdicate as macho men Marcos and Erap did. For some reason, our women presidents have proven to be more resilient. President Cory Aquino survived at least five coup attempts by Col. Gringo Honasan and his RAM boys and President Arroyo remained standing after the attempted coups of Edsa Tres and the Oakwood mutineers.

The Philippines is once again slipping back. While most countries in Asia, including war-ravaged Vietnam and Bangladesh, are promoting their political stability in order to attract more investments and encourage economic growth as China, India, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea have done, the Philippines is sadly moving in the opposite direction.

In chess, the present situation in the Philippines is called a stalemate where neither side can achieve victory nor advantage over the other, resulting in a dead heat. In chess parlance, it is also a zugzwang which is a situation where both players are limited to moves which either cost valuable pieces or have a damaging positional effect. This is otherwise known as a no-win situation.

Dead heat or no-win situation? Take your pick.

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