Not so fast Macapagal,
you haven't won yet!

THE POLITICAL buzz this past week in some circles was that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's campaign was on a real roll, with her supporters claiming that she was now unbeatable because of her miniscule lead in some potentially biased opinion polls. They continued with their rosy assessment of Ms Macapagal-Arroyo's chances of winning the May 10 election by pointing to the fact that the peso rallied after she met with the Makati Business Club, a supposed indication that the business sector is scared of a possible Fernando Poe Jr. presidency.

The other buzz making the rounds was that Poe's campaign was supposedly running out of both steam and money, with a hardheaded Senator Panfilo Lacson refusing to slide down and clear the way for Poe to be the single opposition candidate. Lacson is also refusing to give up the bags of money being given to him by Filipino-Chinese supporters, who are allegedly backing him because of his perceived hardline approach to kidnappers during his term as national police chief.

As many have observed, the lack of a deal between Lacson and Poe seems to be due to their monumental clash of egos. Lacson, once the golden-haired boy of former president Joseph Estrada, who on Thursday had the nerve to deny ever promising Estrada that he would slide down and give way to Poe if he trailed in opinion polls, is really convinced of his own popularity and ability to lead the nation. This is despite the fact that he is trailing in all opinion polls, and that there is a considerable block of voters who would never vote for him because of his alleged shadowy involvement in kidnap-for-ransom gangs and the rubout of alleged members of the Kuratong Baleleng gang.

Poe, to his credit, hasn't been gloating about his lead in the polls, and has just kept on campaigning around the country as usual. Detractors have tried to paint him as an unstable and hot-tempered man because of a few run-ins he's had with annoying members of the press. This is a false accusation, one dreamed up to blacken Poe's image. Just because he snapped at that silly reporter from GMA Network, doesn't mean he's going to snap under pressure once in Malacañang.

Ms Macapagal-Arroyo, on the other hand, has been irritatingly sneering her way through this campaign, at one point even denigrating Poe for being a mere actor with no previous political experience. A day after those remarks, she was forced to eat her own words, saying that in fact she admires actors and several actors were running for public office under the banner of the administration coalition K-4. My only remark on this incident is that Ms Macapagal-Arroyo appreciates the star-pulling power of actors and as such is more than happy to use Kris Aquino, Nora Aunor and Ai-Ai de las Alas, all showbiz stars, to campaign for her.

The truth is that it is too early to call this election. There is still a large chunk of the electorate who are undecided, some estimating that group to be as large as 34 percent of voters. Having so many opposition presidential candidates, including

Raul Roco and Eddie Villanueva, weakens the chances of an opposition candidate winning the race. I don't envy the choices of Filipino voters at the ballot box. It's not only the matter of voting for the least evil of all candidates, it's also voting for the candidate who can win the election and who can get things done with the smallest amount of corruption.

In the final analysis, I still think Poe deserves a second look. His lack of formal education and experience in office may be just what the Philippines needs. He may provide a fresh and novel way of running the country. Certainly he will be surrounded by experienced advisers. For all of Ms Macapagal-Arroyo's education and political experience, she has failed to move the country forward economically and socially. Instead, her sneering has polarized the country further and divided Filipinos. Do Filipinos really need six more years of that? I don't think so.

Comments or questions? E-mail me at rasheed@arabnews.com.