Mega Manila

WHEN the Spaniards first arrived, Maynila was already a bustling settlement of about 4,000 people, mainly clustered around what is now Tondo then ruled by Rajah Suliman.

That was in 1571. Today, "Maynila" has expanded into Metro Manila or the National Capital Region, an administrative area that includes 17 cities and towns. In the last government census, conducted in 2000, the NCR had a population of almost 10 million, which is projected to have reached about 12 million today, give or take 1 or 2 million depending on the time of day.

Four thousand people in 1571 -- that's the population today of a few streets in Manila. As for the figure of 12 million, that's double the total national population of the Philippines at the turn of the 20th century.

Much more than many other countries, our national activities -- economics, politics, even culture -- are centered around the capital. This is reflected in the population figures as well. After Metro Manila, the next largest Philippine metropolitan urban area is Davao City with a relatively small population of 1.1 million.

Anti-family planning groups argue that a large population is good for the economy, fueling economic growth. Well, tell that to Manileños, and I mean the core city of Manila. When I wrote the other week about how Manila Bay's famous sunsets were marred by the waters' terrible pollution, exemplified by slippers being washed ashore, a friend of mine, Dr. Babes Nazareno, texted in to quip about the slippers probably coming from Baseco, a congested urban poor area in Manila. We had visited Baseco a year ago, and listened to the stories of women who said they had to go out of Manila just to get family planning services because the city government does not allow artificial contraception.

But Manila probably need not worry. Long bursting at its seams with problems of pollution and crime, many of Rajah Suliman's descendants have long fled, the city's population dropping through the years. The upper classes ended up in subdivisions scattered throughout Metro Manila, surrounded by high walls and security guards. The poor, especially new migrants coming in, have settled mainly in Quezon City and Caloocan City.

The two cities in fact have the largest barangays in the Philippines today. To help readers get a perspective on these population sizes, remember that most municipalities in the Philippines have a population of less than 50,000. Now, compare that figure to the populations of Metro Manila's super barangays:

The largest one is Barangay 176, better known as Bagong Silang, which had a population of 188,419 according to the last census. So huge is the barangay that even the Catholic Church had to divide it into three parishes.

After Bagong Silang, the three next largest barangays, population-wise, are all in Quezon City: Commonwealth with 120,569, Payatas with 112,690 and Batasan Hills with 109,723. I suspect all these figures are actually under-stated, since the slum colonies have large floating populations.

I intentionally cited barangay populations to underscore the gravity of the problem-just how does one expect barangay officials to take care of the needs of such large populations?

Looking at those Quezon City barangay figures, we shouldn't be surprised to hear that the Diliman-Commonwealth area has become a case study for urban blight. Name the problem and you have it there: traffic gridlock, pollution, substance abuse and crime. Just last week, one of my students boarded a jeep on Commonwealth Avenue, right outside UP Diliman. A few minutes after she boarded, she and all her fellow passengers were robbed at gun point, all this in broad daylight. When the passengers reported the crime, the police could only shrug their shoulders in sympathy, with this really useful advice: Mag-ingat na lang (Just be careful).

But how long can one "be careful" when the resources are just so stretched? I'm not just talking about law enforcement but of the basic services that could help reduce crime: jobs, education, health services, shelter.

Anti-family-planning groups say there are enough resources to go around and that eventually, as we achieve more equity, we will move forward even with this large population. It's really a variation of "trickle-down" theory, i.e., develop the upper classes first and benefits will trickle down to the poor. I think it was the renowned economist John Kenneth Galbraith who once compared that trickle-down theory to a horse trudging along a highway and "trickling down" something for the sparrows.

It's a race against time as the population continues to expand, through both biological reproduction and migration. Quezon City's slums are already so full, people are now invading new grounds, including UP's Diliman campus.

We could of course boast about all these large numbers. Metro Manila is already the world's fourth most densely populated city, more crowded than Shanghai, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Delhi. Are we aiming to be first?

The Guinness Book of World Records does list us as having the world's largest high school, in terms of enrollment. This is Rizal High School, which last year had 25,000 students, with 200 sections for first year alone. I read in the papers they actually ran out of student identification cards.

There's talk now about Mega Manila, extending as far north as Tarlac and as far south as Batangas. It's happening: I have friends who commute daily between school or work in Quezon City and homes in Laguna. We better be prepared to go beyond boasting and prepare to meet the mega problems that come with a Mega Manila.