AS WE BEGIN the last week of the millennium and the final countdown to the year 2000, the government and private sector have declared that the Philippines is prepared for the Year 2000 problem.

The biggest Y2K problem is uncertainty. The Y2K contingency plans that are already in place address various scenarios that might not even come to pass, because no one knows exactly what would happen during the rollover at midnight of Dec. 31, 1999.

In the Philippines, the National Year 2000 Contingency Task Force is in charge of coordinating the formulation and implementation of these Y2K measures as part of the national contingency plan.

"We are definitely prepared for Y2K. All the mission critical sectors are prepared," said Alexander P. Aguirre, national security adviser and director-general of the National Security Council.

On Dec. 15, the task force activated the national Y2K action center at the NSC compound, as well as the regional Y2K centers. The national Y2K action center offers dedicated Y2K hotlines to the public, while coordinating with the action centers of the offices of primary responsibility for the different mission critical sectors. Though initially open during normal office hours, the action centers will start operating 24 hours a day on the critical period from Dec. 28 to Jan. 3.

Peaceful New Year

Are Y2K scares getting you down? The government and private sector have assured the public time and again that there is no need to panic. Still, it is sometimes hard to blame the public for being in a somewhat uncertain mood, for reasons not necessarily linked to the Y2K problem. For instance, the Black Friday Luzon-wide blackout on Dec. 10 not only resulted in Y2K scares, but also coup talks and other conspiracy theories.

Aguirre, however, assured the public that peace and order would be maintained.

Since "some saboteurs" and "some criminally minded elements" might try to take advantage during the rollover period, Aguirre said that the Philippine National Police and the Armed Forces of the Philippines are prepared for both Y2K- and non-Y2K-related disruptions. The police and military would secure vital installations such as public utilities and telecommunications facilities.

He also assured the public that contingency plans are already in place to secure Malaca¤ang Palace and ensure the safety of President Estrada.

"The Presidential Security Group has standard operating procedures for these periods of sensitive situations. Apart from strengthening security measures, the PSG usually will coordinate with adjacent police agencies in the vicinity of Malaca¤ang Palace, such as the Western Police District," Aguirre said.

Power to the people

To ensure that power generation would not be interrupted during the rollover period, the National Power Corp. has stated that it is deploying a "plant-loading" strategy.

"We are putting in more plants than necessary, but would not load them fully. That way, even in the event that power plants trip as what happened during the Dec. 10 blackout, the system wouldn't be affected," Napocor acting vice president for System Operations Rolando Bacani told the Inquirer.

He compared this to operating the trains of the Light Rail Transit or Metro Rail Transit, but putting only a single passenger in each coach. Bacani, however, declined to specify how many plants would be tapped.

"That's part of the security measures. All I can say is that we'll have more plants running than necessary," he said. "Although we don't expect any widespread blackouts, our worry is that there might be local interruptions and the people would think that it's Y2K-related."

Meanwhile, the Manila Electric Co. was the first utility company in the energy sector to be declared Y2K compliant. The Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition monitoring and control solution for its electric system is already Y2K-compliant, as well as its system-wide operations including telecommunications, data communications and billing.

The Department of Energy has also assured the public that the 40-day inventory of crude and oil products would be sufficient for fuel requirements even during the critical dates.

Banking on Y2K

As part of the Y2K contingency measures for the banking system, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas already announced in Nov. 5 its banking hours for the contingency period, as well as the contingency measures for the crossover period. The contingency period is from Dec. 1 to Jan. 15, while the crossover period is from Dec. 29 to Jan. 3.

Teresita Hatta, the BSP's chief accountant and IT managing director, has assured the public of an adequate currency supply to address the possibility of heavy cash withdrawals during the holidays. The BSP will maintain a buffer stock sufficient for six months in its cash department as well as the 18 regional centers outside Metro Manila.

It has also directed banks to generate and provide clients with bank statements before yearend. All the country's 52 commercial banks have been declared Y2K-compliant, and testing has been done to ensure interconnection between automated teller machine systems such as Megalink and Bancnet. Moreover, banks in strategic places will remain open from Dec. 30 to Jan. 2.

Who you gonna call?

The telecommunications sector has been declared Y2K ready and Y2K tests for inter-carrier connection have already been successfully carried out. Instead of possible disruptions caused by the Y2K problem, telecommunications companies are more concerned with the high volume of calls that the holidays are expected to generate.

On the part of the Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., its new Network Traffic Management System is expected to help reduce congestion problems and play a significant role in the company's Y2K contingency plans. The thresholds for the millennium turnover have already been programmed into the switches, with the system rerouting calls to less congested circuits. The NTMS reportedly would also help ensure that the Y2K hotlines would not suffer from congestion during and immediately after the rollover.

On Dec. 9, Globe Telecom held a successful Y2K dry run using a simulated Y2K rollover date. Globe has a Command Control Center that will be the nerve center for all its Y2K activities, aiming to ensure uninterrupted operations and manage congestion during the rollover.

So as not to exacerbate congestion during the rollover--when it is expected that more people would call each other to greet the new millennium--the public is advised to make calls as they normally would during the holidays.

We believe we can fly

The Air Transportation Office will activate on Dec. 31 the domestic and international flight contingency plans that have been formulated in coordination with the International Civil Aviation regional office in Bangkok.

"The domestic flight contingency plan would be activated at 10 p.m. of Dec. 31. That's what was agreed upon with the other Asia Pacific countries," said Andrew Basallote, ATO's officer in charge of Airways Navigation Service and Y2K project manager. "All countries will submit reports to the Civil Aviation regional office and they will then decide when to lift the international flight contingency plans. But as for domestic operations, I think we can lift the contingency plans by noon of Jan. 1."

The National Y2K Air Traffic Management Center has been established at the ATO main building, acting as its command center for the rollover. Basallote assured that all fuel tanks would be full on Dec. 31 to ensure continuous operations, and that standby generators have already been added. He added that an Inmarsat satellite phone would also be used as a backup in case they experience problems with their PLDT and Globe leased lines.

Meanwhile, back on the ground, the Philippine National Police's Traffic Management Group has stated that all traffic lights in Metro Manila would be simultaneously shut off at about 11 p.m. on Dec. 31. This would facilitate the turnover to manual traffic operations, in anticipation of possible Y2K-related blackouts during the rollover. At the same time, the traffic enforcers of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, the National Capital Region Police Office's Traffic Enforcement Group and the PNP-TMG would be out in full force.

Goods and good health

The Department of Trade and Industry has been closely coordinating with manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers to ensure the availability of goods during the rollover.

"We are also going to reactivate the rolling stores in case there are problems with supplies," said Carmen Aventano, head of the DTI's Price Monitoring Unit. "The one in charge of the rolling stores is the National Food Authority but we'll take the lead in proposing their reactivation if the situation warrants."

She, however, stressed that the public has no reason to start panic buying.

"Suppliers and manufacturers have assured us that there will be an adequate supply of goods," she emphasized. According to the DTI Y2K advisory, the public should just stock food and other household supplies in accordance with their normal holiday needs.

In case of possible incidences of panic buying, however, Aventano said that the DTI would call the attention of suppliers and manufacturers and identify the goods that need to be replenished.

"We will also intensify the presence of our price monitoring teams to allay the fears of consumers that there might be shortages or overpricing," she said.

Meanwhile, the Department of Health has assured that the public would still be able to enjoy the usual health services. Private hospitals have been added to the DOH's existing hospital referral system, and hospital staffing has been ensured for the rollover. The pharmaceutical companies have also assured that there is an adequate inventory of medical supplies.

So, are you ready for the new millennium? Ready or not, here it comes.

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