WILL the year 2001 be another advent year for more high-power gadgetry? Will evolving technologies further thin out the dividing line between science fiction and reality? Will finer bandwidths cost less? Will the telecom wars intensify? Is IT destined to solve more medical puzzles? Will more IT rogues unleash more viruses and make cyberspace a security issue? Will President Estrada be acquitted or convicted?

While the world absorbs more technology and becomes adept at technology’s use, what’s in store for Filipinos of the new millennium trapped in a web of mobile interconnectivity? Will the IT industry break through the political and economic scandals drowning the nation, or will 2001 be like a douse of cold water to hell-jolt all of us into the realization that the Philippines is an IT desert where no "cyberflora and fauna" can flourish?

Rep. Leandro Verceles Jr. pictures 2001 mired in a standstill. A "wait and see attitude" will prevail, he said, "probably the entire 2001." He added that the raging political crisis would take its toll in the economy as well as cause a tempering of IT investments. And brain drain, he cautions, will get worse.

Verceles warned that if these issues will not be addressed immediately, a greater proportion of intellectual power of the country will be reduced.

The biggest challenge, he said, is to drastically reduce the cost to go online.

"Cheaper leased lines and gateways will get more business activities and more investments," he said. Verceles stressed that this is the only way the country can arrest brain drain in IT.

Diversified Financial News Network Inc. (DFNN.com) president Ramon Garcia Jr., who said that DFNN will be concentrating on generating revenues from software programming, sales and consultancy from overseas clients, warned that the economy as a whole will drag down domestic consumption of products and services.

"In an uncertain climate—both political and economic—people will spend less on Capex (capital expenditure) and try to minimize Opex (operating expenses). Also, due to the political crisis, FDI (foreign direct investments) will probably be held off or suspended pending the crisis’ resolution," Garcia said in an interview with the INQUIRER.

Garcia added: "For example, ‘who do you negotiate with for incentives,’ was one quote given to me by a foreign company. The peso depreciation will always be a double-edged sword. For exporters of IT services who earn in dollars, it will be good, but inflationary aspects of the peso depreciation will later affect these companies as well."

Garcia went on to say that if one would look at the world economy, technology and IT services would still be the "in" industries. He stressed that no other industry can claim an average of 20-percent growth per annum, as all other companies need these industries to remain competitive and efficient.

"The education and training to increase our workers’ competitiveness in this arena will need to be highlighted and addressed this year or we will lose out to other upcoming IT countries such as China, India, Russia, Belarus and— believe it or not—even Sri Lanka," stressed Garcia. Garcia, by the way, is also the director for marketing of HatchAsia.com, an incubation services firm for dotcoms.

Lawyer JJ Disini, an IT enthusiast and a specialist in cyberlaw, confirmed the possibility of a brain drain phenomenon this year. The Filipino IT worker, he said, will opt to work abroad for the "mighty US dollar, thus continuing the high turnover rate for skilled IT workers in local companies."

With brain drain threatening the country’s IT resources, Sen. Ramon Magsaysay Jr. said he still believes the local IT industry is the strongest bet for global competition. Human resource development and networking with foreign partners to set up back-office operations will continue, he said, and this will give the "best yield with the least failure." Magsaysay said that this will pave the way for young IT practitioners and English majors, and give them more opportunities to sharpen their skills and develop self confidence.

"The major challenge to our society is still the lack of telecoms infrastructure and its affordability, especially in the rural areas where we have a lot of potential creative and skilled young people," he said. Magsaysay stressed that the "digital divide" will continue to be a problem for 2001, citing the greater percentage of poorer parts of the country that are unable to educate its lower income youth and schools in IT.

Disini cited other fearless forecasts: SMEs (small and medium enterprises) will engage in e-commerce; security issues will come to the fore; a brighter 2001 awaits mobile commerce and broadband will support the growth of the ASPs (application service providers).

Citing PhilBx, Disini said that SMEs will be driven largely by the B2B (business-to-business) exchanges.

"Large corporations will begin using these exchanges for procurement purposes, thereby driving their SME trading partners to participate therein," he said.

Disini also cited the opportunities presented by the four million GSM mobile phone users in the Philippines.

"Hence, this market is at least five times larger than the Philippine Internet population. It’s a no-brainer. If you’re looking to invest in 2001, M-commerce is the place," he said.

Verceles, meanwhile, predicts that the broadband and mobile sectors will continue to pick up, with the mobile sector as a "very healthy market."

"Enthusiasm for the broadband will be evident in the business industry but it won’t trickle down to the commercial sector first. Broadband programs of various telecommunications companies right now are seen to focus more on the corporate business districts such as in Alabang, Greenhills and Makati," he said.

Disini, on the other hand, said that as broadband becomes more prevalent, the ASP model becomes more viable. This, he said, will bring about the outsourcing of some MIS (management information systems) services.

Meanwhile, Hewlett-Packard Philippines Corp. marketing communications specialist Cielo Narvaez shares her take on the IT industry’s 2001 fate: Introduction of more PDAs (personal digital assistants), the continuous proliferation of mobile technology and mobility solutions, deeper realization of the need for "always on" Internet infrastructure and Internet data centers.

Asked which among the various areas in IT in the country would be the strongest bet this 2001, she predicted that IT appliances (handhelds that allow mobility such as PDAs, tools for the SMEs such as all-in-one printers), convergence of data and telecommunications and wireless technology would be hot.