Cory Aquino buried martial law

MANILA, Philippines—Even in death, former President Corazon Aquino did Filipinos one last favor by paving a smoother road to the 2010 presidential election, according to the New York-based think tank Global Source.

In a report dated Aug. 11 and titled “The Road Gets Easier,” Global Source said concerns over a potential upheaval in the political system arising from a premeditated change in the Constitution or even a “self-coup” to extend the party rule of outgoing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo had become increasingly irrelevant.

“One that significantly changes the matrix of outcomes is the demise of Corazon Aquino. In the past, we had argued that chances of Charter change succeeding through strictly constitutional processes before next year’s elections are slim but left some possibility of high-risk political schemes being pulled, such as emergency rule or martial law, in order to force the desired changes,” Global Source said in the report written by Filipino economists Romeo Bernardo and Margarita Gonzales.

In Global Source’s view, the death of Aquino, the heroine of the 1986 Edsa People Power Revolution and a world icon of democracy, put an end to such scenarios.

“Huge crowds at her burial [on Aug. 5] offer would-be plotters a preview of what awaits them if they pursue their schemes. While memories are fresh, the 1987 Constitution would be almost untouchable as it forms part of what many consider as the Aquino legacy,” it said, adding:

“Hence, even if a constituent assembly were to be suddenly convened and a referendum organized, the answer of the people would likely be ‘no’ to honor a woman elevated by public acclaim to near sainthood.”

Global Source noted that Malacañang had already asked its allies in Congress to end their push for Charter change, against which Aquino crusaded.

“Another outcome-changer for the near term lies in the way the new US administration has turned its attention recently to the Philippines, with Ms Arroyo finally able to meet with American President Barack Obama ... after some botched attempts to do so,” it said.

“Seasoned US political analysts believe this is a good sign she will leave office peacefully in 2010.”

Foreign policy experts say any visit with a US president could not have been cleared without assurances that it would not turn out to be a diplomatic blunder later, according to Global Source.

CIA chief’s visit

“Oddly enough, after a lightning visit of the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) chief to Manila around mid-July, bomb blasts and bombing attempts rumored to lay the predicate for a state of emergency in the country suddenly declined in frequency,” it said.

Prior to Aquino’s death and Ms Arroyo’s meeting with Obama, Filipinos “waited anxiously” for that moment when she would say goodbye during her last State of the Nation Address (SONA), Global Source said.

It noted that two post-Marcos Presidents—Aquino herself and Fidel V. Ramos—had some version of farewell worked into their last major speech.

But it observed that all Ms Arroyo said in her SONA was: “At the end of this speech I shall step down from this stage, but not from the presidency. My term does not end until next year.”

“It was an obvious jab at critics and political enemies who had been goading her to state explicitly that she would relinquish power to an elected successor in 2010,” Global Source said.

“We believe, though, that the debate on whether or not this omission indicates an impending upheaval in the political system has increasingly become irrelevant...” it said.

Horse race

Global Source said the ruling party would have to find other ways to keep itself politically relevant until and beyond the 2010 elections, which, it said, were now certain to happen.

In an earlier report, Global Source likened this search for options to a horse race, with the current leadership betting on a preferred horse and switching bets whenever the chosen one fell off the track.

As events have turned out, the race is now down to the last few horses, it said.

The first of the options is a post-2010 elections Cha-cha (Charter change). “Pundits call this the Putin formula where, using administration machinery, the President runs for a congressional seat in her hometown while her allies continue to push for constitutional change that allows her to become prime minister,” Global Source said.

It added: “This option not only faces similar obstacles as a pre-2010 Cha-cha but also requires finding a loyal candidate who can win as president yet is willing to serve as a transitional one. With the transactional nature of Philippine politics, thrusting the vast powers of the highest office of the land in the hands of another ambitious politician can easily undermine the strategy for the incumbent.”

Potentially messy

The second option cited is failure of elections where no one is proclaimed president and which will possibly allow the incumbent to stay on.

Said Global Source: “Though seemingly innocuous, the situation is potentially messy.

“While it buys time for those still in power to pursue their plans, more permanent solutions closely guided by the country’s main law and acceptable to the people and the international community, especially the US, eventually has to be presented. This ultimately calls for an election of a qualified president.

“Otherwise, the power vacuum could lead to political turbulence and public unrest.”

Global Source also said the administration could simply support a smooth transfer of power, allowing Ms Arroyo to retire gracefully from office.

“This would also enable her to still leave an acceptable legacy. Realistically, however, this would involve heavy horse trading with front-runners in the presidential campaign to protect her from prosecution,” it said.

Political observers eagerly look to Nov. 30, the last day for the filing of candidacies.

“This date will also reveal the plans of the ... President—if she will run for Congress or not,” Global Source said. “If events reveal she won’t, it would be, from our point of view, another horse out of the running.”

4 at most

With May 2010 fast approaching, the field of presidential candidates has begun to narrow, Global Source said.

It said that by elimination, the field would be left with four serious candidates at most—Vice President Noli de Castro of the administration, and Senators Manuel Villar of the Nacionalista Party, Manuel “Mar” Roxas II of the Liberal Party, and Francis “Chiz” Escudero of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC).

Of the four, it said, Villar and Roxas seemed most acceptable to the business community.

“Mr. Villar, a former Senate President and House Speaker, has been presented as a self-made billionaire who rose from rags to riches by selling affordable housing, a true-to-life story that has struck a chord with many Filipinos,” Global Source said.

“His ratings have generally shown resilience to the well-orchestrated malfeasance charges leveled against him by rivals in the Senate, demonstrating his political sturdiness. He still figures at or near the top of most presidential surveys,” it said.

Global Source noted that Roxas, a Wharton-educated former investment banker whose stint as trade secretary allowed him to gain national mass appeal, had lately shot up in the rankings, “thanks to heart-tugging ads and a much-publicized engagement to a popular broadcast celebrity (Korina Sanchez).”

Roxas comes from a landed clan and boasts a political pedigree, being a grandson of former Philippine President Manuel Roxas.

Young Turk

Global Source said that while it was “less sure” of Escudero’s “financial muscle,” it believed that he would be “another plausible contender.”

It added: “Seen as a young Turk in Philippine politics, his presidential campaign will highly depend on whether or not he gets financial backing.

“His party, the NPC, is divided into two camps, one of which has its business interests closely aligned with the administration (the faction of former Marcos associate and business tycoon Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco).

“He has built a name as an oppositionist with a good chance of inheriting Mr. (Joseph) Estrada’s followers and will hence find it difficult campaigning with a pro-administration patron. Some are convinced he will eventually withdraw, but we are more positive he stands some chance of managing the conflict and continuing the race.”

Enigma

Global Source said the administration’s best candidate was De Castro.

But it said he remained an “enigma,” being “a reluctant candidate who has kept his independent status until today.”

“He has never displayed any strong yearning for power, though his popularity as a television news anchor easily catapulted him to various seats of authority (from the Senate to the vice presidency).

Unease

Global Source said there was “unease” in the ruling party over De Castro’s “trustworthiness” given his “affiliations” with Villar and the Lopez clan, “which has reportedly been on the administration black list because of supposed negative coverage of political events by [its] television station.”

It said the ruling party was “equally” uneasy over De Castro’s “ability and fortitude to run a government and protect the party’s interests.”

Nevertheless, Global Source said, De Castro still ranked high in the polls, in contrast to other administration aspirants who could not garner more than a percent of the popular vote.

“This despite his never abandoning the President in the middle of numerous scandals, making him the least vulnerable to the fabled kiss-of-death endorsement. In a way, the lack of ambition and seemingly pliable nature makes him the perfect candidate for the ruling party,” it said.

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