INQUIRER.net Eleksyon 2007

Survey shows anti-administration sentiment

Inquirer

Amando Doronila

MANILA, Philippines -- The poll group Social Weather Stations' survey on public preferences among senatorial candidates, released on Wednesday, showed the opposition candidates grabbing 9 of 12 slots. The survey results, conducted from Feb. 24 to 27, are the first to be released after the start of the campaign on Feb. 12.

Although issues had not crystallized by the end of February, the results laid bare an undercurrent of anti-administration sentiment nationwide, translating into an early preference for opposition candidates. The results at least represent straws in the wind, which the administration cannot brush aside without courting disaster.

The survey came as a much-needed shot in the arm for the floundering campaign of the Genuine Opposition (GO), but administration quarters could be telling themselves that the campaign has still two months to go, and many things could still happen before the last lap of the campaign. This is not a time for rejoicing in the GO ranks. They still have to catch up and get their campaign going after it sputtered in disarray during the past three weeks.

Although it is premature to draw a firm profile from the early Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, the results indicate where the preferences lie, more than revealing the anti-administration mood of the nation. The ranking of preferences bear close examination. Here it is: (1) Francis Pangilinan; (2) Loren Legarda; (3) Senate President Manuel Villar; (4) Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano; (5) Sen. Panfilo Lacson; (6 and 7) a tie between Rep. Francis Escudero and Sen. Ralph Recto; (8) former senator Vicente Sotto III; (9 and 10) a tie between former senator John Osmeña and Rep. Benigno Aquino III; (11) former senator Gregorio Honasan; (12) Sen. Joker Arroyo; (13) Sen. Edgardo Angara; (14) Aquilino Pimentel III.

All the first six slots went to opposition candidates. Of the 12 slots, nine went to the opposition. According to opposition strategists, it needs nine to gain the majority in the Senate. The remaining three went to Recto, Sotto and Arroyo. Angara was hanging on the borderline, in 13th place, with the margin of error of plus-minus 3 percentage points.

Four in the winning circle are reelectionists: Pangilinan, Villar, Arroyo and Recto. Five are former senators: Legarda, Lacson, Sotto, Osmeña and Honasan. Villar is officially carried by the GO ticket. Pangilinan was originally included in the GO, but was ditched following his insistence on running as an “independent.” Honasan is running as an independent. But despite their protestations of independence, Pangilinan and Honasan belong to the anti-Arroyo side of the division.

These survey findings reveal the weaknesses and strengths of both tickets. For the opposition, it points to the candidates who should be its cutting edge and on whom it has to pour limited sources. For Team Unity, the results exposed its thin strike force -- the wedge of Recto, Sotto, Arroyo and possibly Angara -- who could avert a rout. Team Unity needs to reinforce them.

The SWS said in a statement that “the survey points to at least an 8-4 and at most a 10-2 score in favor of non-Team Unity as of the end of February.”

Between Angara and Michael Defensor who is in 15th place, there is quite a wide gap to overcome. Significant as an indicator of the voters’ mood is that among the Team Unity candidates, Defensor is the most closely identified with President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. He also represents the Arroyo Cabinet on the administration ticket. And he appears to be the lightning rod of the public backlash against the administration.

From my end, it’s quite hard to foresee how the administration can pull up its other candidates, who trail all the way down to 25th place (Gov. Luis Singson of Ilocos Sur).

Given the issues mounting on the administration as the campaign progresses, it does not seem to me that the administration will increase its popularity in the next few weeks.

The results point to the need for drastic revision of the strategies of both the opposition and the administration camps. The danger that the opposition should guard against is sliding back into complacency. What the results have given them is the opportunity to regain their momentum, which they lost at the beginning of the campaign. The opposition has a history of bungling its campaign by underestimating the resources and the grass-roots machinery of the administration.

Also, GO is still a fractious team and its leading candidates, especially those who proclaim their independence, tend to work only for themselves. They don’t lend a hand to their colleagues. If the opposition becomes too ambitious and aims for a clean sweep, it is likely to fail. It should be prudent and trim its sails and maximize exposure of issues that are beginning to hurt the administration.

The capacity of Team Unity to mobilize the rural vote, where it is strong, and deliver the vote, cannot be underestimated. The machine that delivered the vote to Ms Arroyo in 2004 is still intact and is even more amply funded now than it was in the last elections.

Given the odds against it, it is unrealistic for Team Unity to aspire for any result better than 6-6. Its strategy has to aim at cutting its losses. From the way the administration has been conducting its campaign, its real objective seems to be to concentrate its logistics and mobilize its grassroots machinery on the elections for members of the House of Representatives. The aim is to retain its majority in the House. The real battle is over control of the House and this is where the opposition campaign is thin and weak.

Whether or not the Arroyo presidency will be a lame duck after May will be decided by the results of the elections for the House.

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Manila Hotel or Plaza Miranda? – 03/07/07
Arroyo’s dilemma – 3/02/07
Strong parting shot – 02/28/07
Edsa People Power fatigue: a revisionist view – 02/23/07
Senate no longer a springboard to presidency – 02/21/07
The power of patronage – 2/16/07

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