The Wrath of Milenyo

SOME of the most fatal and destructive typhoons ever to hit the country in recent times struck this year, killing an estimated 1,293 people, leaving 389 missing and injuring 1,061. The typhoons damaged P6.4 billion in agricultural crops, P2.9 billion worth of public works, 625,774 houses and eight fishing boats.

These figures point up what we and most of the world already know: that the Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. Located on the edge of the Pacific Ring of Fire, the Philippines is vulnerable to earthquakes (at least six a day, but most so weak that they are not noticed), and volcanic eruptions from 18 active volcanoes. Lying smack in the center of what may be called the Pacific “typhoon belt,” the Philippines is battered every year by an average of 20 tropical cyclones.

Analysts this week said that rising poverty and climate change are making the problem of disaster-prone Philippines steadily worse. It’s like the problem of Sisyphus; a region devastated by a typhoon, an earthquake, a flood or a volcanic eruption has hardly recovered from a disaster when it is struck again by another catastrophe. One way to avoid death and destruction, it is said, is for people in the disaster-prone areas to leave for other places, but the sad reality is that they are too poor to leave the dangerous areas where they earn their living.

The bad news is that, according to Greenpeace and other environmental groups, more violent weather disturbances could be expected as a dire consequence of continuing climate change. Is the country prepared for this, and what is the government doing to at least mitigate the effects of bad weather?

The massive destruction caused by recent supertyphoons “Milenyo,” “Paeng” and “Reming” “should serve as a wakeup call about the need for governments to find ways to avert or mitigate the catastrophic impacts of extreme weather events which scientists predict could become more severe because of climate change,” Abigail Jabines, climate and energy campaigner for Greenpeace Southeast Asia, said.

The government has to take precautionary measures now and not later. Disasters can strike any time and their occurrence cannot be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. But their effects can be mitigated if people can be put out of harm’s way. For instance, the deaths in Albay province could have been minimized had the people living near Mayon Volcano been given timely warning about the possibility of the occurrence of mudslides.

Last May, people in a coastal area in Santo Domingo, Albay went through a tsunami evacuation exercise. Exercises like this should regularly be conducted in disaster-prone areas to make people aware of the need for preparedness and quick action.

Right now, one-day weather forecasts are considered 87 percent (at least in the United States); two-day forecasts are correct up to 80 percent of the time. It may be impossible to achieve 100-percent accuracy in weather forecasting. But it would certainly help if the government could obtain more state-of-the-art equipment to enable meteorologists to make more accurate forecasts so that they can give areas at risk sufficient warning.

Science Undersecretary Graciano Yumul recently said that if the government could install two Doppler radars costing P100 million each, the weather bureau could give more accurate warnings. “We can predict how much rain will fall in a particular area and we’ll easily know if there will be a landslide, flash flood or floods,” he said.

A massive reforestation project, concentrating on flood-prone areas like Quezon province, Leyte, Samar and Metro Manila, could help greatly in reducing the severe effects of flooding during the rainy season. Such a project would have the additional benefit of protecting watersheds and thus ensure an adequate supply of water for irrigation and household purposes.

On the international level, the Philippine government could propose at the coming Asean Summit certain measures designed to mitigate the effects of climate change in the region. Severe climate changes are affecting most heavily the poor countries in Asia; it’s time the developed countries that are principally responsible for the release of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming were made to change their harmful ways.

We cannot change the fact of our geographic location; we will always be in the Pacific Ring of Fire and the Pacific “typhoon belt.” But we can disseminate disaster information more widely, upgrade our forecasting equipment and technology and instill the need for disaster preparedness in our people.