The Wrath of Milenyo

“ANG malas naman ng Bicol!" ["Bicol is so unlucky!”] exclaimed my husband as we watched TV news footage of the disaster scene in Albay province in the wake of Typhoon “Reming.” I felt the same way, but dared not voice out the sentiment regarding the region where my father hails from.

After five provinces in the Bicol region took a pounding from Typhoon “Milenyo” just last September, Reming followed a little more than two months later, sweeping through an area that had yet to get back on its feet. This time, there was the added devastation of mudflow from the slopes of Mayon Volcano burying hundreds of residents in nearby areas, the debris the result of months of pyrotechnic activity from the volcano that had been threatening to erupt for some time. Bicol may have been saved from a volcanic eruption, but it did not reckon with the deadly combination of heavy rainfall and unstable volcanic material.

The Bicol region has always figured prominently in Philippine disaster stories, mainly because its geographical location places it among the first areas to be hit by storms sweeping in from the Pacific. In fact, its vulnerability to natural disasters has been used to explain the persistent poverty in Bicol, with crops and businesses constantly laid to waste by typhoons, floods and volcanic eruptions. This is the reason as well for the fatalism that rules the people’s lives.

But the confluence of Milenyo and Reming is unusual even for a region inured to nature’s wrath. Two supertyphoons just months apart? Is Bicol being singled out for punishment?

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NOT really. Or rather, it isn’t just Bicol, or Luzon or the Philippines that has come under threat from worsening weather and its tragic consequences. Jose Ma. Lorenzo Tan, president of World Wildlife Fund (WWF)-Philippines, in an article, warns of even more supertyphoons and catastrophic cyclones in the class of “Katrina” targeting different areas of the globe.

In the Philippines, writes, Tan, “the peak months of the typhoon season, over the last nine years, still seems to follow the historical pattern, i.e., July to September. In fact, the frequency of typhoons has actually decreased. But, frequency is not really what we should be worried about. We should be looking at impacts.”

As Milenyo and Reming have shown, “even a single storm of this magnitude causes sufficient dislocation and damage to erase a decade of investment and development throughout an entire region. One storm, at the wrong place and at the worst time, can cripple a nation.”

The number of powerful storms, the “supertyphoons” in the class of Milenyo and Reming, has increased alarmingly over the last four years, Tan observes. “From one to two months per year in the period before the late 1990s, Pagasa data seem to show that, between 2003 and 2006, we had catastrophic typhoons up to six months per year. Barometric pressure readings in the high to mid-800s are no longer uncommon.”

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AS the documentary “An Inconvenient Truth” bears out, experts the world over are in agreement that the unstable and volatile weather conditions we have been experiencing are due to a single factor: global warming.

“Put simply,” explains Tan, “the interaction between hot and cold temperatures dictates weather patterns. As the planet surface warms, therefore, the violence of this interaction increases as well.”

Tan cites longitudinal studies proving “an exponential leap” in global temperatures (the graph line of which he describes as resembling a hockey stick). This rising heat on the earth’s surface, commonly described as global warming is being caused by so-called “greenhouse gases,” of which carbon dioxide is the main culprit. “The burning of fossil fuels, primarily oil and coal, for energy or transport are the main sources of carbon dioxide… This is creating the new weather patterns that plague our world.”

And this is the challenge that now confronts countries like the Philippines and regions like Bicol.

While relief and rehabilitation efforts are important and should be pursued, they will not bring an end to an escalating cycle of death and destruction. Tan says “a proactive and strategic solution” must be pursued, specifically one that addresses the problem of global warming.

“It is becoming evident that the effects of global warming are a breeding ground for new instabilities and inequities,” Tan notes. “After all, some areas will be hit more severely than others. The 35 million Filipinos who depend on seafood as a primary source of protein will feel this more than others. Uncertainty and inequitable access to resources are oftentimes the root of new conflict. Without stability, there can be no substantial development. Without a manageable level of predictability, there will be less and less new investment. Global warming is not merely an environmental or health concern, it is also the most serious political, economic and social threat that faces our country and the entire planet.”

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TAN would want energy efficiency to be the rallying cry for all sectors. “An enabling environment for renewable energy should be established and its use mainstreamed. The Renewable Energy Bill must be passed. Technological solutions that contribute to clean and efficient energy should be identified, promoted, widely distributed and encouraged.” As well, greenhouse gases-producing technologies must be held accountable “for the true cost of mitigation,” while mass transit should be promoted and private transport options made more expensive.

“If we hope to provide a good life for our children, basic adjustments have to be made now,” says Tan.

He offers a last word of hope: “We started it. We can stop it. We must.”

More Inquirer columns

Previous columns:
Not yet over – 12/05/06
Funny and serious talk on sex – 12/03/06
‘We are representing you’ – 12/02/06
Filipinas on Mt. Everest – 12/01/06
A fighting chance – 11/29/06