The Wrath of Milenyo

THE FIRST month of the Western calendar was named after Janus of Roman mythology, the god of beginnings. Janus is often depicted with two faces, so that one face looks forward while the other looks backward. And so it is that in January, we look back at the past year and review our accomplishments and failures. And we also look forward and try to predict what the year ahead has in store for us.

The past year was a terrible year with its more than usual share of natural and manmade disasters. Four strong typhoons struck the country, killing hundreds of people and destroying hundreds of millions of pesos worth of public and private property. In some cases the disasters were caused by human negligence and lack of preparedness, such as the fire in an Ormoc mall that killed 25 people.

Malacañang boasts that last year was a good year for the economy, with the peso rising to its highest in nearly six years, the stock market shooting up to a near 10-year high, inflation down to one digit, and dollar reserves zooming to $22.6 billion. But all these economic gains are apparently being enjoyed only by the upper classes, and not by the masses who continue to suffer from low income, hunger and inadequate social services.

On the political front, 2006 was a turbulent year that saw at least one supposed coup attempt and a continuing conflict between administration and opposition forces over a proposal to amend the Constitution by various means. The Supreme Court struck down what it called a deceptive people's initiative and attempts to restrict the people's rights and freedoms through the calibrated preemptive response, an executive order on a supposed state of emergency, and another order that banned executive officials from testifying at congressional hearings.

As the year ended, the Subic rape case continued to make the headlines, with the executive department riding roughshod over the judiciary and hustling convicted rapist Daniel Smith, an American Marine, out of a Philippine jail and back to the US Embassy.

More than 700 leftist militants and 49 journalists were killed. The almost weekly killings alarmed the international community, including the American Chamber of Commerce, but drew only a weak reaction from the Filipinos themselves.

The closing weeks of the year gave us a foretaste of the violence and bloodshed that lies ahead in this election year. A congressman of Abra was killed just outside a church, and the governor of the province was immediately named, but not formally charged, as the principal suspect.

The economy appears to be headed for better times, and was expected to ride on the crest of increasing remittances from overseas Filipino workers. But the OFW boom is being sustained at a terrible social cost (broken homes, neglected children, etc.) and a worsening brain drain that could result in a crisis in medical services and education.

The administration forces momentarily called a halt to the efforts to amend or revise the Constitution to put in place a unicameral, parliamentary form of government that would ensure President Macapagal-Arroyo's continuance in power, probably even beyond 2010. But emboldened by the low turnout at a prayer rally organized principally by the Catholic bishops, the administration is again gearing up for another attempt to force through a Charter change. The opposition forces will not take this sitting down, so expect more verbal and physical clashes to occur in public forums, protests and demonstrations this year.

The Arroyo administration is determined to maintain its two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives to foil any attempt to impeach the President. Expectedly, it will use all its power, and the guns, goons and gold at its disposal to preserve this majority in the coming election. It looks like the coming election will be one of the bloodiest and dirtiest in the country's history--unless the election gun ban is strictly enforced, private armies are disbanded and trouble spots are brought under the control of a neutral agency. But the scandal-ridden Commission on Elections cannot be expected to stay neutral in this year's election.

Some parts of the country seem destined to suffer the fate of Sisyphus: they will continue to build, but whatever they have built will be struck down in a matter of days, if not hours, by stronger storms and more prevalent floods.

It looks like the economy will continue to forge ahead this year but as in the past, the benefits will not seep down to the masses. This year does not look promising politically and socially. But then again, Filipinos may yet surprise themselves.