State of Emergency

BANGKOK—A state of emergency and clashes in Bangkok recall the Thai military’s 1992 “Bloody May” crackdown, but analysts say the generals now want to play referee rather than enforcers of order.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, said the latest clashes were the deadliest political violence since Bloody May, when 52 protesters were killed by the army.

“It’s protesters versus protesters and the worst scenario for us is civil strife,” he told Agence France-Presse. “That’s why the emergency decree had to be employed to keep things from spiraling in that direction.”

Army chief Anupong Paojinda said on Tuesday he would not use force to disperse protesters but would try to negotiate an end to the crisis.

“There is an interesting twist that the army apparently doesn’t want to be the enforcer of the emergency decree, they don’t want blood on their hands,” said Sunai Phasuk, Thailand consultant for Human Rights Watch.

Now soldier is middleman

“I can’t see any ending, how this crisis is going to unfold,” he added.

The current conflict puts the military in a new position: Protesters who defied the state on May 18, 1992, were fighting for an end to military rule and a return to a civilian government.

Instead of openly confronting the protesters like in 1992, the military is now playing a delicate balancing act.

“The military is more a power broker,” said political analyst Panitan Wattanayagorn, an international relations specialist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.

“This time the military is a middle man. They have more room to maneuver, they have more flexibility.”

Role of courts

Asking the military to intervene in politics means walking a fine line in a nation that has seen 18 coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932.

Panitan says peace now depends on whether courts and parliament, rather than brute force, are used to end the crisis.

“If they do that, the situation should be under control rather quickly,” he said. “If they don’t understand these limitations and complexity, they could repeat their mistakes.”