Aquino, Pangilinan feats hailed as ‘real opposition’ gain

PULLING THROUGH AMID DOUBTS Senatorial candidates Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan and Paolo Benigno “Bam”Aquino IV during one of their campaign sorties. —Photo from Bam Aquino Facebook page

MANILA, Philippines — The major surveys suggested they would barely make it, if at all, in the so-called Magic 12 of the 2025 senatorial race. But on Monday, former Senators Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV and Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan managed to stage a stunning political comeback that is seen to consolidate the “real opposition” in the final half of the Marcos administration.

According to the Commission on Elections’ partial and unofficial results as of 8:15 p.m. Tuesday (with 97.34 percent of election returns transmitted), Aquino is poised to take second place with 20,635,291 votes while Pangilinan is ranked comfortably at fifth, with 15,087,496 votes.

They are the only liberal opposition figures to make it within a winning circle dominated by allies of the Marcoses and the Dutertes—a feat made even more surprising because the past three months have pegged them as laggards in almost all preelection surveys for the senatorial race.

READ: Principled governance possible with Robredo, Pangilinan, Aquino wins

“That result was really not what we had expected,” Aquino told his jubilant campaign team at their poll watch headquarters in Quezon City late Monday. “Even now I’m still not sure about that result because it’s so unbelievably high.”

Aquino shared how, on the morning of the elections, his team’s internal surveys projected him to land “at around No. 6-8 or at around No. 15… but this is a really unprecedented result.”

“This is not just because of me but because of everyone here. We all worked hard to go out and convince, everyone worked extra hours… and tomorrow we have to thank everybody who has helped us,” he said.

Pangilinan initially dismissed as disinformation a social media art card showing the partial, unofficial tally of the senatorial race placing him in fifth spot.

After all, he said, he had been one of the prime targets of online attacks throughout the campaign, subjected to a steady stream of trolling on a daily basis, on top of preelection surveys that consistently placed him outside the winning circle.

“I couldn’t believe it. I had to double-check, triple-check and eventually, we confirmed that the social media card showing I was No. 5 was legitimate,” he told reporters on Monday night.

For Sen. Risa Hontiveros, the strong showing of Aquino and Pangilinan “is not just a simple comeback.”

“This election only proves that the Filipino masses still want a government with a heart, principles and the courage to make a stand,” Hontiveros said in a statement.

“The real opposition in the Senate and the House of Representatives is getting stronger!” she said, while also referring to the strong showing of her party list group Akbayan and ally Mamamayang Liberal (ML) in the lower chamber, whose first nominee is former Sen. Leila de Lima.

Last-minute endorsements

In a separate interview, Aquino told the Inquirer that he believed the last-minute endorsements from several local governments and political parties, as well as from religious groups and bloc-voting groups like Iglesia ni Cristo, gave them the final boost they needed to win and more.

The Inquirer earlier reported that in the final weeks of the campaign, the two had bagged critical endorsements from incumbents in the vote-rich Lingayen-Lucena corridor (from Pangasinan up north to Quezon down south), something which their ally and former Vice President Leni Robredo did not have in her presidential campaign.

While Aquino acknowledged that it was still “too early to tell which are the game changers” in their campaign, Aquino credited the “millennial and Gen Z” vote—which constituted majority of the over 60 million eligible voters—as well as their focused campaign messaging, for getting them ahead.

While the results came as a surprise and a work of a “miracle” as Pangilinan described it, he attributed his strong showing to his team’s “last big push” in the final stretch of the campaign: the back-to-back endorsements, radio interviews, caravans, and his and his wife Sharon Cuneta’s visit to the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

Most importantly, Pangilinan credited his performance to the people who believed in the message he carried with him: to support an aspiring senator who still believes that the Philippines has a fighting chance.

In a nationwide survey conducted from May 2 to 6 by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and commissioned by Stratbase Group, Pangilinan ranked 17th in voter preference for senatorial candidates.

In that same week, however, he got a major boost from the endorsement of Cebu Gov. Gwen Garcia, becoming the only non-Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas senatorial aspirant to receive her support.

He also gained key endorsements from the Jesus is Lord Movement, the United Bangsamoro Justice Party, and influential entertainment personalities, among them Vice Ganda, Anne Curtis, Gary Valenciano and Piolo Pascual.

“We lacked funding, didn’t have enough posters, we’re always short on campaign materials, and our machinery was small. We didn’t have a big political machine but still, our passion for the campaign never wavered. We didn’t let any opportunity slip by, and we courted voters relentlessly,” Pangilinan told his team of volunteers, as he thanked them for their effort and for “taking a stand.”

‘Independence’

For the entire three-month campaign, both Aquino and Pangilinan strategically stayed away from hot-button issues, including the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte in March and the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, to focus on their platforms of free tertiary education and food security.

Dindo Manhit, founder and CEO of think tank Stratbase Group, echoed this sentiment, saying the “independence” of Aquino and Pangilinan also gave them credibility and made them appealing to many Filipinos.

“Running outside the shadows of the polarized Marcos and Duterte factions, they became symbols of principled, reformist alternatives. For many Filipinos, their votes for Aquino and Pangilinan served as a ‘revenge vote’ against political toxicity, corruption and empty promises,” he said.

Political scientist and Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes, meanwhile, said the surge shown by Aquino and Pangilinan also had to do with what the administration candidates did not do.

Administration-backed aspirants Bong Revilla and Abby Binay, as well as independent candidate Willie Revillame, were initially projected to make it but are now outside the Magic 12.

“They weren’t really running on the strength of their own campaign but on whatever the machinery of the administration could give to them. So, in that sense, maybe, their campaign petered out toward the end,” Holmes said.

He also noted that the liberal opposition’s strategic voting—a solid push for Aquino and Pangilinan as well as for candidates not necessarily within the winning circle—could explain the gap between the results.

That’s how “you can explain significant support for other candidates like Heidi Mendoza who got almost 7 million down to Leody de Guzman.”

“People started to vote for the ones they feel are more aligned with whatever they advocate [for] … There was strategic voting favoring the liberal opposition, the Duterte candidates, and then the ones who survived on the part of Alyansa essentially survived on the strength of their own popularity rather than their [track] record,” Holmes said.

Where their votes came

Aquino and Pangilinan secured their spots by earning huge votes from some of the vote-rich provinces and cities in the country.

In Cavite, the province with the second highest number of registered voters at 2.4 million, Aquino ranked first with 917,661 votes as of 5 p.m. on May 13. Pangilinan ranked fourth earning 664,551 votes from the province.

Aquino also ranked first among all senatorial candidates in all provinces of Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon). He earned 793,378 votes in Batangas, 826,060 votes in Laguna, and 651,433 votes in Rizal.

Pangilinan earned second spot in Batangas with 604,475 votes and third spot in Laguna with 620,913 votes.

In Bulacan, a province with 2.17 million voters and the third highest among all provinces, Aquino also ranked first with 911,105 votes while Pangilinan ranked fourth with 663,651 votes.

Aquino also ranked first in Tarlac, Zambales and Nueva Ecija—all in his family’s home region of Central Luzon.

In Pangasinan, which has 2.15 million voters, Aquino ranked first with 749,994 votes while Pangilinan ranked tenth with 565,743 votes.

Aquino also ranked first in five out of six provinces of Bicol region. He only ranked third in Masbate. He earned 422,922 votes in Albay and 533,003 votes in Camarines Sur.

Pangilinan, on the other hand, was the steady second spot in five out of six provinces of Bicol. He earned 349,796 votes in Albay and 445,602 votes in Camarines Sur.

In Iloilo, the province with the tenth most number of registered voters at more than 1.6 million, Aquino ranked first with 698,604 votes while Pangilinan ranked second with 523,876 votes.

In Cebu, the province with the most number of voters among all provinces with 3.4 million votes and dominated by the candidates of former President Rodrigo Duterte, Aquino ranked sixth with 888,651 votes while Pangilinan ranked 13th with 661,973 votes

Aquino and Pangilinan also secured a high number of votes in vote-rich cities, particularly in Metro Manila.

Aquino ranked first in Quezon City with 643,251 votes while Pangilinan earned third spot with 466,795 votes. Quezon City has the highest number of registered voters among all cities in the country with 1.45 million registered voters.

In Manila, which has 1.14 million voters, Aquino also ranked first with 496,776 votes while Pangilinan ranked third with 364,269 votes.

Akbayan, ML

Outside of the Senate, the liberal opposition also gained huge wins in the House of Representatives after Akbayan topped the list of winning party list with over 2 million votes.

“In a political landscape long dominated by political dynasties, trapos (traditional politicians), and the machinery of big business, Akbayan’s rise is nothing short of historic. This is more than a comeback, it is a bold step toward a new kind of politics,” the group said in a statement.

With this win, Akbayan is poised to get three seats in Congress: human rights lawyer Chel Diokno, incumbent Rep. Perci Cendaña and Moro women leader Dadah Ismula.

They credited their leaders, especially Hontiveros, and vowed to “begin building a new democratic and reform bloc in Congress and in the Senate—committed to the people’s rights, welfare, and the defense of our sovereignty and democracy.”

‘People’s cry’

Hontiveros, the other half of the two-member minority bloc in the Senate along with outgoing Sen. Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III, said she was looking forward to working with Aquino and Pangilinan.

“With (Pangilinan and Aquino) in the Senate, and Akbayan party list and Mamamayang Liberal in the House, we will again stand with our heads held high, stronger and more prepared for the challenges ahead,” she said.

“The people’s cry is simple and clear: Raise the wages of workers, lower the prices of goods, make education accessible and ensure that those in power are held accountable,” Hontiveros added. /cb —with reports from Inquirer Research