Hypothetical poll: Robredo-Tulfo in statistical tie with Duterte-Marcos

MANILA, Philippines — A hypothetical tandem of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo is in a statistical tie with a hypothetical tandem of Vice President Sara Duterte and Sen. Imee Marcos in the 2028 elections, according to a survey by polling firm Octa Research.

The “Tugon ng Masa” survey results released on Wednesday showed that 45 percent of respondents would vote for Robredo as president and Tulfo as vice president; compared to 42 percent of respondents, who would vote for Duterte as president and Marcos as vice president.

A statistical tie occurs when the difference between two options is smaller than the survey’s margin of error.

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The difference between the Robredo-Tulfo tandem and the Duterte-Marcos tandem was 3 percentage points, while the survey had a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

The Octa poll was conducted from July 4 to 11 with face-to-face interviews with 1,200 male and female respondents aged 18 and above. It had a 95 percent confidence level.

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The “Tugon ng Masa” survey results released last May showed Robredo-Tulfo garnering 44 percent, ahead of Duterte-Marcos’ 40 percent.

By area, class, age, local, gender, education

The Octa poll also showed that a hypothetical Robredo-Tulfo tandem scored 56 percent in the National Capital Region, compared to 22 percent for a hypothetical Duterte-Marcos tandem.

Robredo and Tulfo polled strongest in Balance Luzon with 61 percent, while Duterte-Marcos polled strongest in Mindanao with 90 percent.

On socioeconomic class, according to the survey, Robredo-Tulfo scored highest with Class D (48 percent), followed by Classes ABC (41 percent), then Class E (33 percent).

Meanwhile, Duterte-Marcos scored highest with Class E (53 percent), followed by Class D (41 Percent), then Classes ABC (37 Percent).

For age groups, Octa said Robredo-Tulfo was strongest with the 75+ age bracket (76 percent); followed by the 65-74 age bracket (60 percent), then the 18-24 age bracket (52 percent), the 55-64 age bracket (48 percent); the 45-54 age bracket (43 percent); the 35-44 age bracket (35 percent); and the 25-34 age bracket (33 percent).

On the other hand, the survey showed Duterte-Marcos was strongest with the 25-34 and 35-44 age brackets (50 percent each); followed by the 45-54 age bracket (48 percent); then the 55-64 age bracket (40 percent); the 18-24 age bracket (32 percent); the 65-74 age bracket (29 percent); and the 75+ age bracket (23 percent).

Octa also noted that Robredo-Tulfo scored higher in urban locales (48 percent), while Duterte-Marcos scored higher in rural locales (47 percent).

Both tandems scored higher with male respondents with Robredo-Tulfo scoring 48 percent and Duterte-Marcos scoring 43 percent, compared with the former’s 42 percent and the latter’s 41 percent with female respondents, the survey added.

The poll further found that Robredo-Tulfo was strongest with respondents who finished up until vocational education (54 percent); followed by those who finished up until high school (47 percent); then by those who finished up until elementary school or had no formal education (46 percent); then by those who finished up until college or post-graduate education (36 percent).

Meanwhile, Duterte-Marcos was strongest with respondents who finished up until high school (45 percent); followed by those who finished up until elementary school or had no formal education as well as those who finished up until college or post-graduate education (40 percent each); then by those who finished up until vocational education (30 percent). /mr