Quantcast

Poe seen as viable 2016 bet vs Binay

By

SAY ‘GRACE’ Newly proclaimed Sen. Grace Poe holds her certificate of proclamation as she poses with mother Susan Roces, husband Neil Llamanzares and daughters Hanna and Nika and son Brian during the proclamation of six senators-elect at the PICC in Pasay City on Thursday. JOAN BONDOC

As investors and analysts ponder whether the Philippines would remain in a sweet spot beyond 2016 when the country elects its next President, New York-based think tank Global Source listed four “viable” presidential contenders from the administration party who could challenge incumbent Vice President Jejomar Binay.

Binay has been touted by his political party, United Nationalist Alliance (UNA), as the man to beat in 2016. “I’m saying he will be the next President,” UNA campaign manager Toby Tiangco told the Inquirer this week.

In a May 16 commentary on the midterm elections titled “Vote of Confidence,” Global Source named Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, Senators Francis Escudero and Alan Peter Cayetano and recent senatorial race topnotcher Grace Poe as the four potential standard-bearers within the Liberal Party (LP).

“We agree with the prognosis that the results are a vote of confidence on a highly popular President, which means that President Aquino will continue to have tremendous political capital going forward,” said the report written by economists Romeo Bernardo and Marie-Christine Tang.

“This will be very important as [President Aquino] will need to hit the ground running when the next Congress starts and show results quickly, to enable the economy to build on current momentum and translate the high business optimism into investments in hard assets that will sustain growth,” the commentary added.

Election clout

Global Source said key pieces of legislation—such as the fiscal incentives reform that affects all sectors—would still be difficult to pass, but may stand a better chance with [Mr. Aquino’s] election clout still fresh in the winners’ minds.

“We also think there is very little risk of President Aquino’s becoming a lame duck executive in the near-term,” the report said.  “The administration likely has a two-year window to initiate priority reforms before uncertainty and nervousness creep in with the approach of 2016,” it added.

Global Source added that President Aquino’s ability to influence the outcome of the 2016 election would hinge on the economy. The report said everyone would be looking for solid signs that the President was delivering on his promise of more jobs, investments and a sustained high economic growth.

Fifth-place win

“On the other hand, failure to bring the economy forward will hurt the President’s party in the final year, resulting in handing over [the] reins [of government] to the opposition led by the Vice President, who has demonstrated his own clout with his daughter’s fifth-place win in the Senate race,” the report said.

“In the meantime, the conduct of the election, as orderly and peaceful as the first automated one in 2010, has itself been a confidence booster,” the commentary said.

Within the LP, the research said Interior Secretary Roxas, who yielded to Mr. Aquino as the party’s nominee for the presidency in 2010, was “currently the likely anointed one.” But if, for some reason, Roxas drops out of the race, Global Source said the other “viable” candidates included reelected Senators Escudero and Cayetano.

Surprise topnotcher

The report noted that “one cannot rule out the surprise topnotcher in the senatorial contest, political neophyte Grace Poe,” daughter of the late action star Fernando Poe Jr. who, many believe, won the controversial 2004 election against former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Based on the results of Monday’s midterm polls, the administration’s senatorial candidates are expected to bag most of the 12 senatorial seats in contention. Global Source said members of the President’s coalition party were also likely to have won the majority of the congressional and local elective posts.

“Political observers are starting to place bets on the leadership of the two houses of Congress, with Sen. Franklin Drilon seen as the likely Senate President, and incumbent Speaker of the House, Feliciano Belmonte, holding on to his post. Both are staunch allies of the President and high-ranking members of his Liberal Party,” Global Source said.

Reform agenda

The report noted that supporters of the administration saw President Aquino’s control of both houses as positive for the government’s reform agenda and greatly increased the chances of passing “big ticket” political and economic legislation, among them the rationalization of fiscal incentives, a new mining law, the amendment to the 20-year Bangko Sentral charter, as well as the build-operate-transfer law and the Bangsamoro basic law.

Crucial factor

With the President’s endorsement described as a crucial factor in winning the recent election, Global Source said he was expected to continue to hold sway in the next three years which would enable him, like his mother, to handpick a suitable successor to continue his reform program.

“Naysayers, on the other hand, claim that the administration’s numbers, especially in the Senate, are of no consequence, not only because the Upper House has traditionally acted more independently of the executive branch, but also because the numbers reflect a coalition of parties that came together solely for the elections,” the report said. “The latter implies that the President’s legislative initiatives would continue to face uphill battles and, if the past were any guide, that there is no guarantee that the coalition will stay in place through 2016, much less beyond,” the think tank added.

Recent Stories:

Complete stories on our Digital Edition newsstand for tablets, netbooks and mobile phones; 14-issue free trial. About to step out? Get breaking alerts on your mobile.phone. Text ON INQ BREAKING to 4467, for Globe, Smart and Sun subscribers in the Philippines.

Disclaimer: The comments uploaded on this site do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of management and owner of INQUIRER.net. We reserve the right to exclude comments that we deem to be inconsistent with our editorial standards.

Copyright © 2015,

To subscribe to the Philippine Daily Inquirer newspaper in the Philippines, call +63 2 896-6000 for Metro Manila and Metro Cebu or email your subscription request here.

Factual errors? Contact the Philippine Daily Inquirer's day desk. Believe this article violates journalistic ethics? Contact the Inquirer's Reader's Advocate. Or write The Readers' Advocate: c/o Philippine Daily Inquirer Chino Roces Avenue corner Yague and Mascardo Streets, Makati City, Metro Manila, Philippines Or fax nos. +63 2 8974793 to 94



News

  • Palace to critics: Read the 122-page BBL first
  • A man named Moro
  • Take 2 for Aquino: SAF troopers open up
  • ‘Baby factory’ WHO model for natal care
  • Did you know
  • Sports

  • Gamblers heavily betting on Pacquiao to be first man to beat Mayweather
  • Pacquiao spars in 2 weeks, says Fortune
  • Pacquiao has speed, power to win
  • UAAP: Lady Bulldogs hang on; Eagles near title
  • PH Archer Moreno among top 5 SEAG bets
  • Lifestyle

  • New ramen on the block
  • Churros con chocolate
  • ‘Kanto’ food with panache
  • Still Japanese–but of a more global kind
  • Good things come to those who wait
  • Entertainment

  • ‘Guardians of the Galaxy’ tops MTV Movie Awards nominations
  • We have our champ!
  • Ice cream, reward for ‘The Voice’
  • Team ‘Norte’ at the Indie Spirit Awards
  • Filipino indie gets rave review in US, lands French sales agent
  • Business

  • Larossa’s first building completes top-off
  • Mark Zuckerberg cites mobile operators’ support to expand global Internet access
  • PSEi posts new high
  • SMIC posts record P28.4B net profit
  • US running out of room to store oil; price collapse next?
  • Technology

  • Photo of weasel on woodpecker’s back takes flight on social media
  • Globe first telco to adopt Huawei SingleSON solution
  • Tale of the tape: Congo men biggest; Nokor last on list
  • DOJ warns public: Protect personal online info, dodge ‘sextortionists’
  • SODA: State of digital address 2015
  • Opinion

  • Gains and setbacks
  • Before ‘adios’
  • The next president
  • Teen girls joining Isis jihadis
  • Why not live together?
  • Global Nation

  • Discovery of Japanese wreck ‘surprises’ Sibuyan folk
  • US billionaire finds Japan’s famed battleship in PH
  • Filipinos@Google bust myths about tech behemoth
  • Nursing home aide arrested in So. California, suspected of ID theft
  • US activists’ call for Aquino ouster draws mixed responses
  • PHOTOS AND VIDEOS

    • AFP chief Catapang in Sulu amid battle vs Abu Sayyaf

      Read More

    • JV Ejercito, Atienza ask SC to stop ‘heartless’ MRT, LRT fare increase

      Read More

    • Netanyahu and Obama spar over Iran nuclear deal

      Read More

    • Pot lovers light up as Washington legalizes marijuana

      Read More

    • In photos: Edsa, Wescom anniversary celebration on Kalayaan Islands

      Read More

    • APEC partylist representative in pork scam surrenders

      Read More

    • Marijuana legalization takes effect in Alaska

      Read More

    • Obama faces left-right opposition on trade, military force

      Read More

    • Are MILF members training with Abu Sayyaf rebels in Sulu?

      Read More

    • US surgeons separate 10-month-old conjoined twin girls

      Read More

    • Student marchers call for Aquino resignation

      Read More

    • #INQStory Cardinal Sin appeals to military to not use violence against people

      Read More

    • #INQStory Cardinal Sin calls on Filipinos to support Ramos and Enrile

      Read More

    • Antarctica: Mystery continent holds key to mankind’s future

      Read More

    • Some signs of tension emerge among Islamic State militants

      Read More