China to test actions in WPS to gauge Trump admin response – expert

/ 10:42 PM January 16, 2025

China to test actions in WPS to gauge Trump admin response – expert

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) arrives to testify during his Senate Foreign Relations confirmation hearing at Dirksen Senate Office Building on January 15, 2025 in Washington, DC. Rubio, a three-term Senator and a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, has broad bipartisan support from his Senate colleagues but is expected to face questions over Trump’s plans for Greenland, U.S. relations with Russia and the safe return of Hamas-held hostages. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Kevin Dietsch / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

MANILA, Philippines — China is seen to test its actions in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) by “experimenting” with the Trump administration’s “attitude,” according to a Japanese expert.

China studies expert Shin Kawashima also said the severity of China’s actions in contested waters like the WPS would depend on how the new United States government would respond to their operations.

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“China will experiment with the Trump administration’s attitude, whether it will be hard line or soft line,” Kawashima said in a forum organized by the Stratbase Institute and the Embassy of Japan in the Philippines last Jan. 10.

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“If the Trump administration adopts a soft attitude, China will enact more aggressive policies,” he added.

US President-elect Donald Trump named Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, known as one of the most outspoken senators against Beijing, as the new secretary of state.

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READ: Trump set to name Marco Rubio secretary of state – NYT

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At his confirmation hearing on Wednesday, Rubio vowed to confront “dangerous” China, vowing to ramp up support to deter an invasion of Taiwan, regarded by Beijing as a renegade province subject to reunification.

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READ: Rubio vows to confront ‘dangerous’ China, deter Taiwan invasion

Rubio also introduced the US-Philippines Partnership Act of 2024, a bill that seeks to prop up support for Manila amid Beijing’s aggressive actions in the WPS. This is in line with Manila and Washington’s Mutual Defense Treaty, which calls for each other’s defense in case of an armed attack.

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READ: PH to remain priority of US aid under Trump, says USAID exec

Kawashima said it is unlikely that the territorial disputes involving China’s neighbors would deescalate.

“Maybe they will slow down temporarily, but from a long-term view, China will not stop, especially given their strong strategy to go beyond the First Island Chain,” he added.

The “first island-chain” refers to the chain of islands encompassing the entire Japan and Taiwan, as well as the western section of the Philippines and parts of Indonesia.

Manila and Tokyo have territorial disputes with Beijing over the maritime features in the WPS and Pinnacle (Senkaku) Islands, respectively.

Amid this common challenge, both countries have signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement, which enables a mechanism for shared military training and operations and larger joint exercises between the two countries.

The Japanese Ambassador to the Philippines, Enzo Kazuya, said the bilateral relationship of both countries will “enter a new phase” under the RAA.

“We will continue to fortify our security and defense cooperation with allies and like-minded partners such as the US and Australia, sending a powerful message of our unwavering commitment to regional peace and stability, anchored on the rule of law,” he also said during the forum.

Kawashima said the move is a step in the right direction.

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“If like-minded countries will cooperate against China if all of us could enhance the level [of cooperation] against China, the cost [to] China will be so much,” Kawashima added. “That means China will feel larger costs if they continue to adopt its aggressive attitude towards us.”

For comprehensive coverage, in-depth analysis, visit our special page for West Philippine Sea updates. Stay informed with articles, videos, and expert opinions.

TAGS: China, West Philippine Sea

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