Go, Tulfo tie at top in final Octa survey for May 12 polls
Infographic from Octa Research shows Sen. Bong Go and ACT-CIS Rep. Erwin Tulfo tied for the top spot in the firm’s final survey before the May 12 polls.
MANILA, Philippines — Sen. Bong Go and ACT-CIS Rep. Erwin Tulfo are “statistically” tied at the top of Octa Research’s final survey for the senatorial race days before the May 12 polls.
Go leads the survey with 56.8 percent voter preference, while Tulfo also had 52.7 percent support, according to Octa’s Tugon ng Masa (TNM) poll furnished to the media on Wednesday.
“Both candidates are in a statistical tie for the top two positions, reflecting a highly competitive contest for the first and second spots and underscoring strong nationwide support for each,” Octa said in a statement.
“This statistical dead heat confirms a neck-and-neck race at the top of the senatorial rankings,” it added.
READ: Pulse Asia: Go, Tulfo top picks for senator
Magic 12’s usual occupiers still prevail
Other familiar senatorial candidates continued to occupy the top spots of the so-called “Magic 12.”
Former senator Vicente “Tito” Sotto III ranks within the third to eighth range with 42.3 percent, followed by Sen. Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa at 40.8 percent (third to ninth).
TV personality Ben Tulfo (40.2 percent), Sen. Pia Cayetano (39.1 percent), and Sen. Ramon “Bong” Revilla (38.1 percent) also fall within the third to 10th statistical range.
Makati Mayor Abby Binay ranks third to 11th with 37.6 percent, followed by Sen. Lito Lapid at 35.6 percent (fourth to 13th).
Former senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson (34.3 percent) falls within the fifth to 16th range, while Camille Villar (31.9 percent) ranks eighth to 18th.
Former senator Bam Aquino (31.4 percent) and independent candidate Willie “Wil” Revillame (30.4 percent) fall within the ninth to 18th and ninth to 20th ranges, respectively.
Neck and neck
Five senatorial candidates are competing for a spot in the Magic 12.
Former senator Manny Pacquiao (29.1 percent), Sen. Imee Marcos (28.9 percent), and Benhur Abalos (28.5 percent) are all in the 10th to 20th range.
Sagip party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta (27.8 percent) ranks 11th to 20th, while former senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan (26.3 percent) rounds out the field in the 11th to 21st range.
Due to the survey’s margin of error, Octa believes that these senatorial candidates “remain well within striking distance and are statistically competitive for a spot in the Top 12.”
“It is also worth noting that, while most of the probable winners experienced slight declines in voter preference compared to the previous TNM Pre-Election Survey conducted from April 10 to 16, 2025… Marcoleta bucked the trend—posting a significant gain of approximately 9 percentage points,” Octa said.
Bloc voting may change ‘tight’ race course
Octa noted that “the senatorial race remains exceptionally tight and highly competitive,” as the rankings, especially in the critical 9th to 12th positions, are only separated by a narrow margin of just a few percentage points.
Several factors, including bloc voting of religious sects, may still affect the results of the ranking, the survey firm said.
“This ongoing volatility is influenced by several factors, including shifting voter preferences, and the impact of intensified local and social media campaigning, as well as the negotiations between senatorial candidates and networks of local politicians for access to command votes,” Octa said. “Additionally, the endorsement of block votes from religious organizations, along with the vast network of resources, political machinery and alliances of the national government at the disposal of administration candidates, further adds to the unpredictability of the race in these final days.”
“Given these dynamics, further fluctuations in rankings are anticipated, and the outcome for 9th to 12th positions remains too close to call,” it continued.
