‘Diverse’ Senate mix faces pressing questions, concerns in 20th Congress
With six of the 11 Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas candidates in the Magic 12 of the Commission on Elections’ partial and unofficial vote count, the coalition considers the results of midterm elections a victory. — File photo
MANILA, Philippines — While elections are always divisive and intense, tensions are usually tempered during the Philippines’ midterm polls because what is at stake, as some people might say, is not as high as that of presidential races.
But to say that the midterm elections is not important will be a lie, especially with the different issues that the country is facing — issues that surfaced even before the campaign period even started.
On one side, you have the growing political spat between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte’s respective camps, which was aggravated by allegations of corruption in Duterte’s office and the arrest of her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, due to charges before the International Criminal Court (ICC).
On the other hand, a lot of people have complained about current wages’ inability to keep up with the significant increase in the prices of goods and services. There is also the issue of Congress supposedly not observing rules related to the crafting of the budget, supposedly not giving priority
With all these issues in play, checking how the 2025 midterm elections has shaped the incoming 20th Congress — particularly the Senate — will be key to identifying where the country would be in the near future and beyond 2028.
Alliances
Looking at the possible make-up of the 20th Congress — should the current partial and unofficial results from the Commission on Elections (Comelec) hold true — the Senate will be a mix of diverse personalities and alliances that sometimes go beyond just party affiliation.
On the surface, the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) is still the most dominant party in the Senate, with six members — Senators Loren Legarda, Win Gatchalian, JV Ejercito, and Senate President Francis Escudero as the holdovers from the 19th Congress, while former Senate President Vicente Sotto III and Senator Lito Lapid being the ‘newcomers’.
After NPC, the next largest bloc will be the Nacionalista Party, which includes Senator Mark Villar, Senator Pia Cayetano, Senator Imee Marcos, and Villar’s sister Deputy Speaker Camille Villar — who looks poised to win as she is currently ranked ninth.
Add Lakas-CMD stalwart and ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo, who is currently fourth in the partial and unofficial results, then the administration would have at least 11 allies, if the Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas tie-up survives the test of time
The Alyansa, as the name suggests, is an alliance between five political parties including NPC, NP, Lakas-CMD, the National Unity Party, and the President’s Partido Federal ng Pilipinas.
But the Alyansa is not as simple as it looks: Senator Marcos, the President’s sister, backed out of the alliance in the middle of the campaign season as she did not like how the administration handled the arrest of former president Duterte.
Duterte was brought to the Netherlands where the ICC is based.
Deputy Speaker Villar still received endorsements from President Marcos, but she skipped the last rallies of the Alyansa including the slate’s Miting de Avance in Mandaluyong City fueling rumors that she has abandoned the alliance.
Both Deputy Speaker Villar and Senator Marcos were also backed by Vice President Duterte, who has openly feuded with President Marcos.
With that in mind, how members of NP would vote regarding Vice President Duterte’s impeachment would be anyone’s guess at this point.
Independent?
Factoring in independent candidates will also be tricky. Currently, there are four incumbent senators who have classified themselves as ‘independents’ — Senators Raffy Tulfo, Alan Peter Cayetano, Migz Zubiri, and Joel Villanueva. They may be joined by two candidates in the 2025 midterm, former Senator Panfilo Lacson and Sagip party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta.
As independents, it would be tricky — but not impossible — to map what side they would take in terms of policy making, national issues, and political decisions.
One good case in point is on former president Duterte’s arrest and Vice President Duterte’s looming impeachment trial.
The trial against Vice President Duterte has not formally started but netizens and analysts have been making guesses as to where candidates may side.
Cayetano used to be former president Duterte’s Foreign Affairs Secretary, after his vice presidential bid in 2016 as Duterte’s running-mate. Zubiri hails from Bukidnon in Mindanao, the same island group that the Dutertes are from.
Marcoleta meanwhile ran under the umbrella of the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino (PDP), the party headed by former president Duterte. During hearings at the House of Representatives on alleged confidential fund misuse within Vice President Duterte’s offices, it was Marcoleta who ardently defended the country’s second-highest official.
Tulfo meanwhile has made statements criticizing Duterte’s drug war, and being the brother of ACT-CIS Rep. Erwin Tulfo, there is a possibility that they might share the same stance.
READ: Tulfo says ‘drug war’ must no longer be ‘bloody’; bats for more rehab centers
Rep. Tulfo during the campaign season has thrown shade at candidates who are supportive of China, without mentioning names. It is public knowledge though that former president Duterte has advocated for friendlier ties with China, instead of resorting to diplomatic protests.
READ: Erwin Tulfo warns: Up to voters if they want a China-controlled congress
Villanueva and Lacson’s links on the other hand are hard to perceive: on one end, Villanueva is seen to be an ally of the Dutertes, saying in 2023 that the former president could be the “right person” to become the special envoy to China so that tensions would subside.
It was also Villanueva who criticized the House of Representatives’ decision in 2024 to cut the Office of the Vice President budget for 2025.
But Villanueva is also supportive of individuals and personalities that are critical of the Dutertes, endorsing the senatorial bid of former Senator Francis Pangilinan, who currently ranks fifth with 15.08 million votes according to the Comelec’s partial and unofficial results.
Lacson has the same inclinations: in March this year, the former senator said that the Philippines must extend assistance to Duterte as he is still a Filipino incarcerated in a foreign land. But in August 2021, Lacson said that Duterte may be in a “panic mode” after the former president became critical of the Senate’s investigation into his administration’s “overpriced” pandemic supply procurement.
Pink wave?
This might be a shock to some, but the third-biggest bloc in the Senate right now is a tie between bitter rivals after 2016 — PDP, and parties aligned with Vice President Leni Robredo.
PDP is poised to have three stalwarts, in the person of party president and Senator Robinhood, and Senators Bong Go and Ronald dela Rosa who are currently first and third in the partial count.
Former Senators Bam Aquino and Pangilinan being up high in the unofficial tally means Senator Risa Hontiveros would now have key allies in the Senate. Despite being from different parties — Hontiveros from Akbayan, Aquino from the Katipunan ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino, and Pangilinan from the Liberal Party — they share the common ground of being Robredo allies.
But aside from the Senate, there is a growing belief that the Akbayan party-list, which is aligned with Hontiveros and Robredo, would get three seats in the House of Representatives.
If such a thing happens, human rights lawyer Chel Diokno who ran for senator in 2019 and 2022 under Robredo’s slate, will have a seat in the House. Incumbent lawmaker and Akbayan party-list Rep. Percival Cendaña and Moro leader Dadah Ismula may get spots too.
PDP senators are expected to defend the Dutertes as they have done so, but it is also unclear how members of this so-called “pink wave” will act during the impeachment trial and other issues.
Robredo was visited by Vice President Duterte when the latter’s spat with the Marcoses was brewing. On the other hand, Robredo — who fought a gruelling battle with Marcos in the 2022 presidential race — endorsed two of the Alyansa’s candidates, former Interior secretary Benhur Abalos and former senator Manny Pacquiao.
READ: VP Sara Duterte visited Leni Robredo in Naga, Gutierrez confirms
On policy making, Robredo’s allies can be counted on to support measures that would help people stretch their wallets despite rising inflation figures. In April, Pangilinan said that the call for a P200 minimum wage increase is just, as current salaries can no longer shoulder daily expenses.
Similarly, Aquino said that the proposed legislated wage hike must be passed and enacted into law.
Other House
While it only has one representative in the Senate, Lakas-CMD remains as the most dominant party inside the House, with 104 of its congressional candidates in the 2025 midterm elections securing seats for the 20th Congress.
This was confirmed by party president and House Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez on Tuesday, saying that this is a vote of confidence for the leadership that Lakas-CMD brings.
Data from the Commission on Elections (Comelec), sent to Romualdez by Lakas-CMD executive director Anna Capella Velasco, showed that the party had fielded 128 candidates for congressional districts. With 104 winning, this translates to a success rate of 81 percent.
According to Romualdez, Lakas-CMD will continue to support President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s Bagong Pilipinas legislative agenda. Also, the Speaker said the party is committed to work closely with its allies in the Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas, the alliance which fielded an 11-person slate for the senatorial race.
Despite a seeming grip in the House, Lakas-CMD’s number in the House actually decreased by a little, from 109 House members as of September 2024. For Alyansa, many also believe that the slate underperformed as only six of their candidates are currently part of the partial and unofficial count from Comelec’s transparency servers.
This is lower than what pre-election surveys predicted — that either eight or nine of the administration-backed candidates will win.
Alyansa campaign manager and Navotas City Rep. Toby Tiangco earlier said that they still consider the results of the 2025 senatorial race as a vote of confidence for the administration as most of their candidates are poised to win Senate seats.
Despite the several uncertainties, what is clear now is that the next few months will be worth watching, as many questions may be answered: will alliances break or will new ones be forged? And what role will the 20th Congress play in terms of the 2028 presidential race?
