Surprising results? Garcia says surveys may have missed key factors
Commission on Elections (Comelec) chair George Garcia photo from INQUIRER files
MANILA, Philippines — The stark difference between the pre-election surveys and the unofficial tally for the senatorial and party-list races may be due to several important factors that would only show up during the polls itself, Commission on Elections (Comelec) Chairperson George Garcia said.
Garcia in a press briefing on Thursday said he is not trying to tarnish the credibility or the effectiveness of surveys, but the reality is that pre-election polls should not be considered as totally accurate as there are different factors — like the limited scope of polling firms.
“Sa US (United States) nga hindi rin ‘yon ang lumabas na survey eh, ‘di ba? So ano ang ibig sabihin? Ang survey ay hindi ‘yan ang final end result, ang survey ay basehan ng, pupwedeng maging basehan ng pagde-desisyon ng sambayan o ng botante. But hindi po ‘yan ang magsasabi na ‘yanang final na result,” Garcia said.
(In the US the surveys also did not reflect the results of their elections, right? So what does that mean? The surveys are not the final end result, the surveys are only bases of how people or voters may decide. But that would not show what the final results are.)
“There are so many moving factors that are not included or were not included in the surveys. Hindi naman sa nire-rebut natin, ang survey may sariling scientific methodology, at ang survey ay sarili pong paraan para masabing ‘yan ay accurate. Pero, tatandaan niyo, may mga grupong hindi natanong doon, may mga grupong maaaring hindi ‘yan ang tamang isinagot,” he added.
(There are so many moving factors that are not included or were not included in the surveys. It’s not that we are rebutting the surveys, but they have their own scientific methodology, and the survey has their own methods to say that it is accurate. But let us remember, there are groups of voters who were not asked, there are respondents that may have not given the right answers.)
Furthermore, Garcia said that there may be instances wherein respondents gave reluctant answers to surveys, or voters making last-minute changes to their preferred slate.
“May mga groupo na natanong pero nilinlang lang ‘yong nag tatanong. May mga groupong hindi pa talaga fixed kung sino’ng ibo-boto, pero basta may malagay lang, ‘yon ang kanyang sinabi. So, madaming factors,” he said.
(There are groups of voters that were asked leading and confusing questions. Some groups may have not yet thought of who they would vote for, so they just mentioned somebody for the sake of answering the survey. So, there are many factors.)
“At tatandaan nyo, kung ang survey kinuha ilang araw bago mag-eleksyon, paano kung nagbago ang pag-iisip ng mga kababayan natin no’ng papalapit na siya sa presinto? Paano kung biglang nagbago ang kanyang pag-iisip noong gabi bago mag-eleksyon? So, anong ibig sabihin? So many moving factors,” he added.
(And remember, if the survey was conducted days before the elections, what if the people’s choices change while they are moving towards the polling precinct? What if their preference changed the night before the elections? So what does this mean? There are so many moving factors.)
While Senator Bong Go topping the Comelec’s partial and unofficial tally as of now was correctly predicted by the surveys, what happened below Go is a different story. Former Senator Bam Aquino, from not being included in the surveys’ Magic 12, shot up to the second spot, gaining 20.89 million votes as of 5:32 p.m. on Thursday.
READ: When pre-poll surveys go way off mark
Below Go is Senator Ronald dela Rosa, with 20.59 million votes.
The administration-backed Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas, which was expected to have eight or nine candidates in the winning circle, now only has six in the Magic 12. And aside from that, all of the Alyansa candidates ranked below than what was initially predicted — which led experts to believe that the slate “underperformed.”
Days before the elections, a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed that ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo will be the front-runner, holding the top spot with 45 percent of the respondents’ votes. His current fourth-place ranking means he lost three spots.
READ: Erwin Tulfo leads final SWS survey on Senate race
Former Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III meanwhile was poised to be third, but instead, slipped down to eighth. Senator Lito Lapid was ranked fourth in surveys and is now 11th.
Meanwhile, Makati Mayor Abby Binay and Senator Bong Revilla — who were holding the seventh and 11th spots in the SWS survey — are currently out of the Magic 12, ranking 15th and 14th instead.
READ: Senate race: Go leads early count; Aquino, Pangilinan in
Garcia again clarified that he is not against the conduct of surveys as these could gauge a candidate’s standing. However, it should never be taken as mirror images of election results.
“I’m not saying that you should not rely on surveys, but what I am saying is surveys are not election per se,” he said.
“Without demeaning or casting doubt on the integrity of surveys, these will remain to be the basis of our decision, the basis of to vote or not to vote of certain persons and perhaps the survey can say what is the status when the poll was conducted,” he added. /jpv
