‘Major loss of face’: China experts weigh in on ‘news blackout’ of Scarborough collision

China Coast Guard-3104 sustains damage to its forecastle after being rammed by Chinese navy in Panatag Shoal on Monday. COURTESY of state-run People’s Television reporter Patrick De Jesus.

MANILA, Philippines — Apart from releasing “boilerplate” statements, the Chinese government has yet to announce any casualties in last week’s collision of its ships off Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal.

This was despite the Philippine Coast Guard’s (PCG) report that four China Coast Guard crewmen were thrown overboard by the collision of a CCG vessel with a warship of the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N).

Even the collision itself was not mentioned in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) official statements.

Unlike the relatively usual water cannon and ramming incidents, the news about the extraordinary collision was widely picked up by international media, even in Taiwan.

Taiwan-based Chinese foreign policy expert Titus Chen noted that mainstream and independent media in the self-ruled democratic island have also covered the event “quite extensively.”

“We are well aware of the development,” Chen, a research fellow and deputy director of the National Chengchi University, said in an email to Inquirer.

Embarrassing

On the other hand, Chen said the Chinese government exerted all efforts to suppress information on the collision which he deemed as “embarrassing” for Beijing.

“The collision and casualties are embarrassing to the Chinese government to the extent that its propaganda machine makes sure that the public will not hear about it from mass media,” he said.

Singapore-based foreign policy expert Collin Koh shared the opinion that he believed it “shocked” the Chinese communist party leadership.

“This incident constitutes a major loss of ‘face’ for them,”  Koh, a research fellow of S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told Inquirer in an email interview.

Koh also said it doesn’t help that the collision took place in the context of Chinese ships “being outmaneuvered by the much smaller PCG ship.”

On August 11, the 80-meter CCG ship with hull number 3104 chased the 44.5-meter BRP Suluan and performed a risky maneuver on the PCG ship, leading to a collision with the 157-meter PLA-N warship with hull number 164.

Chinese ships collide off Scarborough Shoal; PH Coast Guard offers aid

Both Chinese ships suffered damage with CCG-3104’s forecastle being crushed, while BRP Suluan managed to evade the maneuver.

China’s search, rescue ops tracked at Panatag

“So all in all, nothing glorious to highlight,” Koh said.

“Under such circumstances, there’s no incentive to say anything more than just putting out boilerplate statements, even if news of the collision must have also reached certain segments of the PRC’s general population.

In the dark about ‘bad’ news

“In any case, state media suppressed the collision aspect and at least the authorities could satisfy themselves with the assumption that most of the population should be in the dark about this,” he continued.

For Hawaii-based Chinese foreign policy expert Denny Roy, a “delay” in announcing “bad news,” such as the recent Scarborough incident, “is typical of the PRC public relations approach.”

Roy said the Chinese government is also wary of the “potential for volatile reaction from the Chinese public.”

“They might be angry at the Chinese government, question the competence of the Chinese Navy, or unjustifiably demand violent retaliation against the Philippines to even the score,” Roy, a senior fellow of the think tank East-West Center, said in an email to Inquirer.

No let-up in aggression

Nevertheless, Koh said he believes that the incident will make Beijing “more aggressive” in its future dealings with Manila’s maritime missions to save face.

“No rollback from such coercive behavior will take place because the PRC leadership won’t desire to project an image of weakness, not just to external parties especially South China Sea rivals, but also the domestic audience,” Koh said of the argument that Beijing would be forced to “rethink its aggressive posture” in the West Philippine Sea after the incident.

“We would expect Beijing to at least maintain the current level of posture in the West Philippine Sea, especially Scarborough Shoal,” he continued.

China pushes what experts have called “exclusion zone enforcement” in Panatag Shoal, flouting the 2016 arbitral ruling that declared the area a traditional fishing ground for the Philippines, China, and Vietnam.

This unilateral policy is the basis of the aggressive actions of Beijing against Manila’s vessels, including this latest collision.

“Since the collision constitutes a loss of ‘face’ for them, they would seek to claw back the losses,” Koh said. “We should brace for the PRC forces to come back more aggressive in future.”