Red flags raised as fuel crisis revives PH-China oil talks

MANILA, Philippines — As fuel prices remain elevated and volatile, lawmakers, experts and fisherfolk groups are raising concerns over the Philippines’ renewed push to explore joint oil and gas development with China, warning that any deal must not come at the expense of sovereignty, transparency and long-term national interest.

The statements from Akbayan Party-list and fisherfolk group Pambansang Lakas ng Kilusang Mamamalakaya ng Pilipinas (Pamalakaya) come as the government again signals openness to joint exploration in the West Philippine Sea, a move increasingly framed as a response to the ongoing global oil crisis triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

READ: PH interest a must in oil search talks – think tank

Critics, however, said the urgency of the energy crisis should not override legal safeguards or lessons from past negotiations with Beijing.

‘Rewarding bad behavior’

During a press conference held on Araw ng Kagitingan, April 9, Akbayan lawmakers and key figures from the legal, defense and civil society sectors warned that entering into a joint exploration agreement with China under current conditions may send the wrong signal.

“Transparency should be a governing principle in our foreign and energy policies. Any agreement involving our natural resources is a public matter. The Filipino people have the right to know the terms, conditions and concessions being negotiated with China,” Akbayan Rep. Jose “Chel” Diokno said.

He cautioned that negotiations conducted away from public scrutiny risk undermining trust.

“Any agreement forged without transparency raises serious red flags. As such, we will ask Congress, particularly the House Committee on the West Philippine Sea, together with other relevant committees, to exercise oversight over these oil talks to ensure transparency, accountability and adherence to the Constitution,” he said.

READ: Senators balk at possible China talks on oil and gas exploration

Akbayan lawmaker Perci Cendaña issued a sharper warning, saying the move could embolden aggressive actions in disputed waters.

“We are sending the wrong message and encouraging more powerful countries to escalate disputes to extract concessions. Over time, this erodes the rules-based order in the region,” Cendaña said.

“Instead of demanding compliance with international law, we are adjusting to China’s violations. Real cooperation must be based on respect for the law, not submission to aggression. We should pursue energy security in ways that do not validate coercion and undermine our sovereignty. We cannot reward bad behavior and expect good outcomes. What we tolerate today, we will surely invite tomorrow,” he said.

Legal limits, past precedents

At the same briefing, retired Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio laid out the legal framework governing joint exploration, emphasizing that any agreement must comply with the Constitution, which requires full Philippine control over natural resources.

Foreign entities, he said, may participate only as service contractors — an arrangement that has been central to past negotiations but also a source of friction.

Previous attempts at joint exploration, including discussions during the administrations of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Rodrigo Duterte, repeatedly stalled over constitutional concerns, sovereignty issues and questions over China’s compliance with international law.

More recently, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has signaled openness to reviving talks first agreed upon in principle with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2023, though these remain hindered by territorial disputes.

RELATED STORY: Marcos open to reviving stalled PH-China oil, gas talks

Analysts and security officials have warned that entering into agreements with China carries risks, citing concerns over reliability and the potential erosion of the Philippines’ legal position in the WPS.

Timing questioned amid oil crisis

For some groups, the issue is not just legality but timing. “Atin Ito” co-convenor Rafaela David questioned the urgency behind the renewed push for joint exploration.

“Any joint oil exploration at this time will not yield immediate benefits nor address the urgency of the current crisis. It takes years before such projects produce tangible gains. So we are compelled to ask: why is this being pushed now?” David said.

She added that negotiations should not proceed unless China complies with conditions tied to the Philippines’ maritime rights.

“Unless these conditions are met, any negotiation or agreement on joint oil exploration is off the table. Let us not trade our West Philippine Sea for oil,” David said.

The conditions she cited include recognition of the 2016 arbitral ruling, withdrawal from disputed areas, and an end to reported harassment of Filipino fishers.

Fisherfolk: Not opposed, but cautious

Unlike outright opposition from some lawmakers, Pamalakaya took a more conditional stance, acknowledging the need to tap domestic energy reserves while stressing safeguards.

“While we recognize the need to explore our oil and gas reserves amid the ongoing oil crisis, a joint exploration with a foreign country like China should set strict parameters to ensure that we are the one would benefit with the activity,” the group said.

The proposal under discussion reportedly includes a 60-40 sharing scheme, aimed at cushioning the impact of global oil price shocks linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Still, Pamalakaya said any agreement must be anchored on respect for Filipino rights in national waters.

READ: Zambales fishers lukewarm about PH-China energy venture in WPS

“Beijing should come clean about its intentions in the joint energy venture by assuring the Filipinos that it will refrain from its intimidation activities in our territorial waters, and own its series of violations of international maritime law,” Fernando Hicap said.

“This will create an enabling environment to peacefully settle the tensions in our territorial waters once and for all,” he added.

Beyond geopolitics, the group also pointed to structural weaknesses in the country’s energy sector, particularly in research and development.

“Our overwhelming intellectual human resources for research and development remain neglected of government support. But if concretely promoted, we won’t be needing any other country to make use of our potential energy resources,” Hicap said.

Fuel pressure, policy response

The renewed discussions are unfolding as soaring fuel costs strain households and key sectors, particularly transport and fisheries.

In Zambales, gasoline has reached around P103 a liter, while diesel prices have climbed as high as P170 a liter, effectively doubling operating costs for some fisherfolk.

Nationally, diesel prices have breached P170 a liter after weeks of consecutive increases driven by disruptions in global oil supply linked to conflict in the Middle East.

READ: Rare rollback for diesel, gasoline seen possible next week

The spikes underscore the Philippines’ vulnerability, as about 98% of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East, leaving the country exposed to external shocks.

It is within this context that proposals to tap domestic oil and gas reserves — potentially through joint development with China — have regained traction. /dm