Bong Go, Erwin Tulfo still leading in Octa survey for senators

Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go and ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo

MANILA, Philippines — Senator Christopher “Bong” Go and ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo remained as frontrunners in the Octa Research senatorial survey, while actor Philip Salvador is now one of the “probable winners.”

READ: Bong Go tops OCTA survey for senatorial bets

Go, Tulfo, and Salvador are among the 19 candidates with a “statistical chance of winning.”

A total of 64.2 percent said they are voting for Go and 61.2 percent for Tulfo, while 24.4 percent said they will vote for Salvador.

Former senators Bam Aquino and Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan are also among the contenders for the Senate “Magic 12.”

Aquino is preferred by 32.3 percent of survey participants, while 30.3 percent of respondents want Pangilinan for senator.

Biggest gainers

Salvador made it to the “probable winners” slate on Octa’s survey for the first time.

Political analyst Richard Heydarian said the “sympathy factor” stemming from former President Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest rubbed off on Salvador, who presented himself as a “loyal soldier.”

“We can clearly see a consolidation of support behind prominent Duterte supporters, and former actor Philip Salvador has been deft in maximizing the sympathy factor for the former president’s detention at The Hague,” Heydarian told INQUIRER.net in a text message.

“He has consistently presented himself as a loyal soldier and sincere defender of Duterte — and such pathos has clearly resonated with an electorate that is likely to send yet another version of Robinhood Padilla to the Senate,” he added.

“It is understandable because they’ve been prominent during the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte,” said political analyst and Associate Professor Jean Encinas-Franco of Salvador’s rise in a phone interview to INQUIRER.net.

“They were even pictured crying,” Franco also pointed out.

On the other hand, Aquino gained an additional 4.3 percentage points, and Pangilinan three points compared to the previous Octa survey, improving their ranking in the already tight spot.

‘Big tent alliance’

Heydarian attributed this steady increase to former Vice President Leni Robredo’s forming of a “big tent alliance,” which, he said, is “timely.”

“Former Vice President Leni Robredo’s timely intervention in favor of a big tent alliance and steady messaging by key opposition candidates seem to work, but enjoying the tacit support of the administration would be crucial come the actual Election Day where state machinery could make a huge difference for those chasing last spots in the Senate race,” he explained.

Franco said Pangilinan and Aquino’s steady increase may be attributed to “the fact that they have been reached out beyond the base of Kakampinks, and they sharpened their messaging, and the fact that they did not issue statements, or getting entangled with the Duterte arrest.”

“They’re being strategic about it. For the people who will vote for them, they already know their stand against the Duterte, but again to join the fray during that very chaotic moment, days after the arrest, they probably calculated already, it’s better not to issue any statements,” she said.

Despite this, Franco said she doesn’t think Pangilinan and Aquino are compromising their principles.

“The objective is to win,” she said. “If they already compromised their principles, they might already be at the top of the survey. They are not compromising their principles so they are having a hard time.”

Full list

Here is the full list of 19 probable winners for the 2025 midterm polls:

Go, Bong – 64.2 percent (rank 1-2)

Tulfo, Erwin – 61.2 percent (rank 1-2)

Ben Bitag – 45.4 percent (rank 3-7)

Sotto, Tito – 43.3 percent (rank 3-8)

Dela Rosa, Bato – 40.4 percent (rank 3-10)

Lacson, Ping – 39.7 percent (rank 3-10)

Cayetano, Pia – 39.5 percent (rank 3-10)

Bong Revilla, Ramon, Jr. – 38.7 percent (rank 3-10)

Lapid, Lito – 36.9 percent (rank 5-11)

Binay, Abby – 35.7 percent (rank 5-14)

Aquino, Bam – 32.3 percent (rank 9-18)

Villar, Camille – 30.4 percent (rank 10-18)

Pacquiao, Manny Pacman – 30.3 percent (rank 10-18)

Pangilinan, Kiko – 30.3 percent (rank 10-18)

Revillame, Willie Wil – 29 percent (rank 11-19)

Abalos, Benhur – 28.8 percent (rank 11-19)

Marcos, Imee R. – 27.9 percent (rank 11-19)

Tolentino, Francis Tol – 27.7 percent (rank 11-19)

Salvador, Phillip Ipe 24.4 percent (rank 12-20)

A total of 1,200 registered voters were interviewed from April 10 to 16, Octa said.