Pulse Asia: Last-minute change, momentum led to off-target survey

Pulse Asia explains the disparity in its surveys to the actual results of the May 12 elections.

MANILA, Philippines — A significant number of voters who were open to last-minute changes on their preferred senatorial candidates, along with some bets’ failure to sustain momentum, spelled the difference between pre-election surveys and the actual results in the 2025 polls.

These were some of the reasons pointed out by polling firm Pulse Asia in its Pulso ng Bayan report released on Monday, where they compared their surveys to the election results.

One factor that Pulse Asia saw was the high number of respondents who either said that they decided on who to vote for senator a week before the election (26 percent), just a day before the polls (25 percent), or on election day itself (11 percent).

READ: When pre-poll surveys go way off mark

This, the company said, could have caused the changes in the respondents’ answers when they were interviewed months before the elections and with the choices they made in an actual ballot.

Decided on election day

“When asked when they decided — or plan to decide — whom to vote for as senators, responses were almost evenly split between those who decided a week before election day (26%) and those who decided the day before (25%). About 21% said they made their decision long before election day, while 16% decided two weeks before, and 11% decided on election day itself,” Pulse Asia said.

“These figures suggest that over one-third of voters—those who planned to decide the day before (25%) or on election day itself (11%) — were potentially open to last-minute shifts in candidate support,” it added.

Another issue that may have helped the variance is the supposed failure of some candidates to sustain their momentum.  According to Pulse Asia, four winning senatorial candidates — former senator Bam Aquino, ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo, Sagip party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta, and Senator Lito Lapid— all registered higher voter preferences in their May 2025 survey.

But on election day, the upward trajectory was only sustained by Aquino and former senator Kiko Pangilinan — two candidates aligned with former vice president Leni Robredo’s opposition bloc.

“In the matter of changing trajectories in voter preferences, the May results may be compared to an earlier April survey to see any possible changes in position as election day approached.  Of the candidates in contention in the May 2025 survey, four experienced a statistically significant increase in voter preference compared to the earlier April 2025 survey. These were Bam Aquino (+7.4 percentage points), Erwin Tulfo (+6.3 points), Rodante Marcoleta (+5.9 points), and Lito Lapid (+5.8 points),” Pulse Asia said.

Comparing election results

“When comparing the final election results to the May survey, however, only Bam Aquino (+4.8 percentage points) and Kiko Pangilinan (+2.4 points) sustained momentum.  They registered a further increase in their final vote shares relative to the May survey.  In contrast, Marcoleta’s, E. Tulfo’s, and Lapid’s final shares were lower on election day,” it added.

A lot of election observers and even netizens on social media have noticed that the survey results from Pulse Asia and other polling companies were off the mark in some spots.

While Senator Bong Go topping the Commission on Election (Comelec) final and official tally was correctly predicted by surveys, what happened to others is a different story.  Aquino, from not being included in the initial surveys’ Magic 12, shot up to the second spot, gaining 20.97 million votes.

Aquino was ranked eighth in the Pulse Asia’s May 2025 survey.

At third, below Aquino, is Senator Ronald dela Rosa, with 20.59 million votes.  Pulse Asia predicted him to go fourth.

Meanwhile, candidates from the administration-backed Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas, which was expected to have seven to nine candidates in the winning circle, only had six in the Magic 12.

Also, all Alyansa candidates ranked below than what was initially predicted which led experts to believe that the slate “underperformed.”

Stark difference

For example, the Pulse Asia survey showed Rep. Tulfo will be second behind Go, with a 48.7 percent share in the respondents’ votes.  He ended up at fourth spot.

READ: Pulse Asia: Go, Tulfo top picks for senator

Former Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III, meanwhile, was poised to be third in both Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations (SWS) surveys, but instead, slipped down to eighth.  Senator Lito Lapid was ranked fourth in SWS, fifth in Pulse Asia, but ended at 11th.

Meanwhile, Alyansa candidates Senator Bong Revilla and Makati Mayor Abby Binay were ninth and 10th at the Pulse Asia survey, but they failed to win Senate seats.

Last May 15, no less than Comelec Chairperson George Garcia said that the stark difference between the pre-election surveys and the official tally for the senatorial and party-list races may be due to several important factors that would only show up during the polls itself.

Garcia said he is not trying to tarnish the credibility or the effectiveness of surveys, but noted that pre-election polls should not be considered as totally accurate as there are different factors — like the limited scope of polling firms.

Furthermore, Garcia said that there may be instances wherein respondents gave reluctant answers to surveys, or voters making last-minute changes to their preferred slate — an assessment that coincides with Pulse Asia’s observations./mr