Experts weigh in: PH ‘nothing to gain’ by deploying warships to Panatag

An aerial view from the Philippine Navy’s Agusta Westland 109 helicopter shows BRP Jose Rizal (FF-150), USS Shoup (DDG-86), and JS Noshiro (FFM-3) executing synchronized maneuvers during a joint maritime drill near Panatag Shoal in the West Philippine Sea in this file photo taken last March 28, 2025.  (Photos by Lt. Col, John Paul Salgado, AFP public affairs office)

MANILA, Philippines — A maritime expert said the Philippines has “nothing to gain” by deploying warships off Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal while another said there is a need to calibrate strategy in anticipation of more intense Chinese actions after the collision of its ships there.

Analysts weighed in on the matter after the remarks of Alexander Lopez, spokesperson of National Maritime Council (NMC), ruling out the warship deployment for Panatag Shoal despite the unprecedented direct participation of a Chinese warship in the Aug. 11 incident.

Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, Navy spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, maintained that Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) assets like warships have never left the shoal’s vicinity.

Remarks ‘intentionally ambiguous’

Asked when he thinks the two statements appear to be contradictory, SeaLight director Ray Powell said: “No. I think they are intentionally ambiguous.”

“And honestly, I understand that,” Powell told the Inquirer in a message on X (formerly Twitter) on Tuesday.

For security expert Chester Cabalza, the government spokespersons made “intentionally ambiguous” pronouncements because “China acts ambiguously at the same time.”

“Ambiguity plays in an all-out gray zone environment that is open for multiple interpretations,” Cabalza, president and founder of the Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, told Inquirer on Tuesday.

“This guessing game act becomes effective when the opponent behaves in a deceitful manner.”

“There is insincerity because trust is broken, and there is no existing agreement or mechanism between China and the Philippines in the Scarborough Shoal,” he added.

Since its effective takeover of Panatag Shoal in 2012 after not withdrawing its forces despite a mutual agreement with Manila, Beijing conducts what Powell termed as exclusion zone enforcement there, flouting the 2016 arbitral award which declared it a shared fishing ground of China, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

The direct participation of Beijing’s warship is in line with this policy, and Powell said “Manila would have nothing to gain by deploying warships to Scarborough Shoal.”

“For the Philippines, there’s no obvious upside to pushing gray-hulled navy ships into China’s illegal exclusion zone—it would only give Beijing a pretext to escalate further,” Powell said.

“However, neither does the AFP want to state that it is unwilling to exercise its freedom of navigation rights.”

Instead, Powell noted that the country is “letting its much stronger US ally do the challenging”.

READ: More than 500 PH-US military engagements slated for 2026

On Aug. 14, two American warships sailed off Panatag Shoal days after the collision between two Chinese vessels.

READ: US Navy calls false China’s claim it expelled American warship from Panatag Shoal 

A 157-meter People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) warship with hull No. 164 joined the blocking operations against the Philippine Coast Guard’s BRP Suluan, leading to a PLA-N warship colliding with a China Coast Guard (CCG) ship with hull no. 3104.

Both Chinese ships suffered damage, with CCG-3104’s forecastle being crushed while four of its personnel went overboard.

“China paid a heavy human, material, and reputational price for its escalation last week,” Powell said.

READ: ‘Major loss of face’: China experts weigh in on ‘news blackout’ of Scarborough collision 

‘Firmer response’ may be needed, but…

After the Aug. 11 collision, “it may be prudent to calibrate our actions in the next few weeks”, according to Rommel Jude Ong, a retired Navy rear admiral and a professor at the Ateneo School of Government.

“There is always a possibility that China will create situations to retaliate against their recent humiliation to save face,” Ong told Inquirer in an interview on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, Ong said: “While it is understandable for [NMC] to pursue a course of action that avoids further escalation in Scarborough Shoal, a firmer response might be necessary to assure the Filipino public and convey a direct warning to Beijing.”

As it lacks military capability to do so, Powell said that, for Manila to have a fighting chance for Panatag Shoal, it should continue to face China in a different arena.

“The Philippines needs to accept that its long-term fight for the shoal will be a political and legal one, and so its best chance to win that fight is to convince Beijing that forcibly holding the shoal is not in its national interest,” Powell said.

“That won’t happen soon, so in the meantime contesting the shoal will require a steady, patient determination—as Manila has been showing,” he said. /gsg