Resupply mission in Ayungin ‘seems underway’ — monitor

This file photo taken on April 23, 2023 shows the grounded Philippine navy ship BRP Sierra Madre, where marines are stationed to assert Manila’s territorial claims at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, in disputed waters of the South China Sea. (Photo by Ted ALJIBE / AFP)

MANILA, Philippines — The rotation and resupply mission (Rore) for BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal appears to be ongoing on Friday, according to a West Philippine Sea monitor.

“Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal seems underway,” Ray Powell, program head of Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, said in a post on X (formerly Twitter).

Powell said Philippine Coast Guard’s (PCG) BRP Bacagay and BRP Malapascua are en route to Ayungin Shoal in a move that is indicative of a Rore mission.

READ: 24 Chinese ships seen in Ayungin Shoal in ‘continuous pressure campaign’

However, Powell could not confirm the presence of a resupply boat. Powell explained that, unlike PCG vessels, the small boats like those used to bring supplies are not required to broadcast their Automatic Identification System, which is used to track their whereabouts.

Nevertheless, Powell told Inquirer that authorities “have been hinting that a resupply mission is due.”

PCG ships are always present during the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP)-led Rore mission. AFP has also contracted small boats, which are the ones that could only come close to BRP Sierra Madre, it being surrounded by shallow waters.

The World War II-era warship has been aground in elevated part of the shoal since 1999 to become a naval outpost there.

Asked about updates on Rore, Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, Navy spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, did not provide a confirmation, deferring the details to the commander of the Western Command.

Nevertheless, Trinidad said: “We cannot abandon our soldiers in the frontlines. It is the moral obligation of the leadership of the AFP to provide especially food to our men in the frontlines, so the Rore, that will continue.”

CCG ‘closely engaging’ PCG ships

Trinidad also said that, as of Friday, 20 Chinese militia ships and four China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels were in the shoal’s vicinity.

“This has been the number for the past four days,” Trinidad also said in a San Juan City forum.

Of the four CCG vessels reported by Trinidad, two of them appear to be “closely engaging” with two PCG ships, according to Powell.

CCG-5304 engages BRP Bacagay while BRP Malapascua is also followed by CCG-23514, according to Powell.

When asked if the said CCG vessels engaging with PCG ships could be included in Trinidad’s count, Powell said: “I think that’s a pretty safe bet.”

However, he said it is “not clear yet whether China is impeding the resupply boat itself.”

Litmus test for BCM

“If so, that would mark the end the agreement reached after last year’s dramatic June 17th confrontation,” Powell continued.

The June 17, 2024 rotation and resupply mission for BRP Sierra Madre saw the most violent confrontation by Manila and Beijing which led to serious injury of a Philippine Navy personnel.

After this incident, Manila and Beijing came up with a “provisional understanding” on the resupply of BRP Sierra Madre at the 10th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea.

READ: PH-china-agree-to-honor-provisional-understanding-on-ayungin-trips/

Since the BCM, no untoward incident has occurred in the succeeding Rores in BRP Sierra Madre.

However, AFP’s maritime domain awareness last Aug. 20 saw another Chinese aggression with a boat mounted with armaments being deployed and a CCG ship conducting a water cannon exhibition. During that time, a Chinese vessel was also seen deploying fishnets along the southeast approach of the shoal, while a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle was also seen above the area.

This aggression in Ayungin also came after the Aug. 11 collision in Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal involving a China Coast Guard ship and a People’s Liberation Army-Navy warship.

Several experts warn that after this collision, China’s actions may become more aggressive in the West Philippine Sea.

The maritime missions in Ayungin and Panatag have become one of the flashpoints of tension between Manila and Beijing.

This comes as Beijing claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea but the landmark international ruling effectively dismissed this in favor of Manila’s sovereign rights in the western part of its exclusive economic zone. /mr